BTC Rebound Still in Correction Phase, HYPE Main Uptrend Initiated | Featured Analysis

Last week, the cryptocurrency market continued its oscillating trend. Bitcoin experienced a phased rebound after a rapid decline earlier, but from the overall structure and volume perspective, the current market remains in a weak sideways consolidation phase, and the mid-term trend has not fundamentally changed.

In this market environment, we continue to strictly follow our established trading system: on one hand, closely monitoring the HYPE Wave III main upward structure evolution, and on the other hand, engaging in short-term spread trading and medium-term trend position management around the BTC range-bound pattern.

This weekly report will systematically review and analyze last week’s market structure, trading execution, and potential market evolution paths for this week, providing corresponding trading strategy references.

Core Summary of the Trading Weekly Report:

• Deep analysis of HYPE multi-cycle trend structure: weekly tracking. (See Part One)

• Validation of HYPE short-term trading effectiveness: last week, HYPE completed a short-term long position (1x leverage), successfully achieving approximately 18.44% profit. (See Table One)

• Validation of BTC short-term strategy execution: Bitcoin followed the established short-term strategy last week, completing a short position (1x leverage), with a profit of about 2.01%. (See Table Two)

• Validation of BTC medium-term strategy: Bitcoin continued holding a short position built at around $89,000 (1x leverage), with a profit of approximately 18.17% as of last week’s close (around $72,831), with a maximum profit of about 32.58% during the period.

• Core short-term viewpoint validation: Bitcoin maintained a weak sideways oscillation last week. The current trend aligns with expectations.

• This week’s market trend forecast and medium- and short-term trading strategies.

I. HYPE: Trend Structure Analysis and Short-term Trading Review

1. Continuous tracking of HYPE market dynamics and investment opportunities

• February 23 Weekly Review: First indicated that HYPE might enter an investment window, noting the market was in Wave II correction phase, and preliminarily predicted the subsequent initiation of Wave III main upward trend.

• March 3 Weekly Review: Determined that the February 24 low of $25.60 could be the start point of Wave III, confirming the trend reversal.

• March 9 Weekly Review: Noted that the price had effectively broken through multiple moving average resistances on the daily chart, then entered a retracement consolidation phase, which is an energy accumulation process. After this, a rapid rise is expected.

2. Daily chart trend structure overview for HYPE (based on market evolution after January 21):

• Wave I (Impulse): from the January 21 low of $20.46 to the February 3 high of $38.41, lasting 14 days, with a maximum increase of 87.73%.

• Wave II (Correction): from the February 3 high of $38.41 to the February 24 low of $25.60, lasting 20 days, with a maximum decline of 33.35%.

• Wave III (Main Upward): from the February 24 low of $25.60 to the present, with a new high of $38.85 on March 14, successfully breaking above Wave I peak of $38.41, confirming Wave III trend. As of now, 20 days have passed, with a maximum increase of 51.76%, and the main upward trend continues.

3. HYPE hourly detailed structure (based on market after March 8):

HYPE_60min candlestick chart

Figure 1

• Review of hourly trend structure (03.02–03.08): In the March 9 weekly review, we identified that the adjustment starting from March 2 can be divided into five segments: 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, 12-13, 13-14. Analysis shows clear bottom divergence signals at the end of segment (9-10) and exit of segment (13-14). Therefore, we judged that the correction likely ended at point 14 (around $29.67).

• The rally from the low point at 14 (March 8) can be subdivided into 10 segments from 14 to 24, forming a push wave. As of analysis, this upward structure is still ongoing.

• Central construction: within these 10 segments, segments 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, and 23-24 are forming an upward central structure.

4. Core view this week: The current market is in Wave III trend. After the central structure completes, the key to subsequent movement is whether the price can effectively break free from the central’s gravitational pull. This week is likely to remain in range-bound oscillation.

5. HYPE short-term trading review (1x leverage): (03.09–03.15)

Last week, based on our self-developed spread trading model and momentum quantification model signals, combined with the Wave III upward trend forecast, we executed a short-term (long) position, achieving a profit of 18.44%.

Table 1

• Entry decision (see Figure 2): This decision integrated trend, structure, and quantitative signals. First, we judged that the hourly correction structure ended at point 14 (~$29.67). Then, the price broke through the previous upper resistance (~$31.33). Based on bottom resonance signals from the spread and momentum models, we opened a 30% long position at $31.40.

• Exit decision: When the models signaled a top resonance near the Wave I peak (~$38.41), and the price approached this level, we closed the position around $37.19.

• Trade summary: Successfully captured the Wave III upward opportunity, with a profit of about 18.44%.

HYPE_60min candlestick chart

Figure 2 (Short-term trading illustration)

II. Bitcoin: Trend Structure Analysis and Medium-/Short-term Trading Review

1. Short-term trading strategy review: (see Table 2)

We strictly followed our self-developed spread and momentum quantification signals, and based on market trend forecasts, completed a short (short) position last week, with a profit of 2.01%.

① Bitcoin short-term trading details summary: (leverage *1x)

Table 2

② Short-term trading review: (see Figure 3)

• Entry: Price rebounded near $74,500 but faced resistance, and the spread trading model triggered a strong top warning signal (green dot). Coupled with the two models’ short signals, we established a 30% short position at $72,496.

• Exit: Price fell to around $70,500, and the spread model triggered a bottom warning (red dot). We closed all positions at about $71,039.

Bitcoin 30-minute candlestick chart: (Momentum + Spread models)

Figure 3 (Short-term trading illustration)

2. Medium-term strategy review:

Holding the 60% short position built at around $89,000 (January 28), as of last week’s close (~$72,831), profit is approximately 18.17%.

III. Bitcoin: Weekly and Daily Technical Indicator Analysis

Combining market operation insights, I analyze Bitcoin’s multiple technical indicators from a multi-model and multi-dimensional perspective within our trading system.

1. Weekly chart analysis (see Figure 4):

Bitcoin Weekly K-line (Momentum + Sentiment Quantification)

Figure 4

• Momentum model: Technical indicators show momentum lines trending downward, with the white momentum line flattening, negative energy bars shrinking, no divergence signals.

• Sentiment model: Blue sentiment line at 26, strength zero; yellow at 13, strength zero; peak value is 0.

• Digital monitoring: Moving averages show a bearish alignment, last week’s large bullish candle increased about 10.39%, with the price first above the 7-week moving average; no bottom signals.

Overall analysis: The rebound last week was strong, with multiple technical indicators improving, indicating a correction from oversold conditions. However, we believe the weekly bearish trend remains intact, and the large bullish candle needs further confirmation for sustainability.

2. Daily chart analysis (see Figure 5):

Bitcoin Daily K-line (Momentum + Sentiment)

Figure 5

• Momentum model: Last week, the overall pattern was “oscillating upward.” Momentum lines above zero are rising in sync, with the white line crossing above zero for the first time; positive energy bars are strengthening but weak.

• Sentiment model: After Sunday, blue sentiment at 31, zero strength; purple at 75, zero strength, with a significant rise.

Combined analysis: Despite seven consecutive bullish daily candles indicating strong short-term rebound momentum, trading volume did not expand proportionally. The overall trend remains a rebound from oversold levels, still within range-bound oscillation. The daily bearish trend persists; focus on the battle around the zero line (key support/resistance).

IV. Market Forecast for This Week (03.16–03.22)

1. Bitcoin’s central accumulation zone (based on the low point after February 6): (weekly update)

Bitcoin 4-hour chart

Figure 6

Using the 4-hour cycle:

• Central construction: Last week mainly operated within segments 12-13. Currently, the upward central is forming. Resistance moved up to about $74,090, support around $62,500; upper boundary ~ $68,800, lower boundary ~ $66,250.

2. C-2 wave rebound end judgment:

• Maintain previous core view: The rally from the February 6 low (~$60,000) is a super-oversold rebound within a larger C wave correction, followed by a C-3 wave decline.

• C-2 rebound end: If the price breaks below the lower support of ~$66,250 and cannot re-establish above it during subsequent retests, it indicates a third type of sell point per Chánlùn theory. This suggests strong downward momentum, and the rebound structure may be broken, increasing the likelihood that C-2 rebound has ended.

3. Core view: Maintain range-bound oscillation between $62,500 and $74,500, watch for price action near the edges. Pay particular attention if the price breaks below the support at ~$66,250.

Key resistance levels:

• First resistance: around $74,500 (near previous lows)

• Second resistance: between $79,500 and $80,600 (near November 2025 lows)

Key support levels:

• First support: around $65,000 (important previous support)

• Second support: between $60,000 and $62,500 (near February 6 low)

• Third support: around $57,400

V. Trading Strategy for This Week (excluding sudden news impacts): (03.16–03.22)

1. Medium-term strategy: (see Figure 7)

Bitcoin Daily chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 7

Position monitoring: Currently, the price is below the bullish-bearish band (yellow), so continue holding the 60% short position established at $89,000 (January 28).

• If the price rebounds above $74,500 effectively, reduce the medium-term position to 40%.

• If the price breaks above the band and stabilizes, close all medium-term positions.

2. Short-term strategy: Use 30% position, set stop-loss points based on support/resistance levels, and look for spread trading opportunities (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

3. Given the overall medium-term bearish trend, to adapt dynamically to market evolution and based on signals from our proprietary trading models, we prepare two short-term plans:

Plan A: Resistance on rebound, short at high.

• Entry: When the price continues to rebound near $74,500 and triggers resistance signals plus model top signals, establish a 30% short.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $76,000.

• Exit: When the price drops near key support and model signals indicate, gradually close positions for profit.

Plan B: Breakout short position.

• Entry: When the price breaks below support at ~$66,250 and retests without stabilization, combined with top signals, establish a 30% short.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $67,500.

• Exit: When the price declines to support levels with model confirmation, gradually close for profit.

VI. Special Reminders:

1. When opening a position: immediately set initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move stop-loss to break-even (entry price).

3. When profit reaches 2%: move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continue monitoring: for each additional 1% profit, move stop-loss up by 1% to lock in gains.

Financial markets are highly volatile; all analysis and strategies should be dynamically adjusted. All viewpoints, models, and operations in this document are based on personal technical analysis only, for personal trading logs, and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Market risks are inherent; please trade cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this information.