Kaiyuan Securities: Initiates Overweight Rating on Chongqing Beer

Open Source Securities Co., Ltd. Zhang Yugang and Zhang Hengwei recently conducted research on Chongqing Beer and published the research report “Company Information Update: Structural Upgrades Hedge Industry Pressure, Cost Optimization Releases Profitability,” giving Chongqing Beer a “Buy” rating.

Chongqing Beer (600132)

Continuous advancement in premiumization, resilient profitability, maintaining “Buy” rating

By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 14.72 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-over-year; net profit attributable to parent company is 1.23 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-over-year. In Q4, revenue is 1.66 billion yuan, up 5.2%; net profit attributable to parent is -0.1 billion yuan, reducing losses year-over-year, with revenue and profit meeting previous earnings forecast. Considering the steady progress of the company’s premiumization strategy, we slightly raise the profit forecasts for 2026-2027 and add a forecast for 2028. The expected net profits attributable to parent for 2026-2028 are 1.30 billion (+0.5%), 1.35 billion (+0.3%), and 1.41 billion yuan (+3.8%), respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9x, 20.1x, and 19.4x. We maintain a “Buy” rating.

Steady growth in volume and price throughout the year, continuous product structure optimization, and steady advancement of premiumization strategy

In 2025, beer revenue reached 14.30 billion yuan, up 0.9% year-over-year, with sales volume of 2.995 million tons, up 0.7%; ton price was 4,773.6 yuan/ton, up 0.2%. In Q4, sales volume was 327,000 tons, up 2.9%, with an average price of 4,839.9 yuan/ton, up 5.3%. By product tier, in 2025, high-end/mainstream/economy segments generated revenues of 8.78/5.19/0.33 billion yuan, with respective YoY changes of +2.2%/-1.0%/-1.8%; in Q4, high-end/mainstream/economy segments grew YoY by +10.1%/+5.3%/-13.1%. The company’s product structure continues to optimize, and the premiumization strategy is progressing steadily. We expect Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue brands to lead growth, while core products like Löwenbräu and UUSU maintained steady sales growth throughout the year.

Northwest and South regions maintain good growth momentum, while Central region faces some pressure due to external environment

Regionally, in 2025, Northwest/South/Central regions achieved revenues of 4.03/5.88/4.39 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY changes of +3.6%/-1.4%/+1.7%. The Northwest and South markets maintained good growth, mainly benefiting from channel sinking and brand penetration; the Central region faced some external market and industry competition pressures.

Cost reduction improved gross margin, while sales and management expense ratios increased, and net profit margin grew steadily

In 2025, the company’s gross margin increased by 2.31 percentage points to 50.88%, mainly due to raw material cost declines. Sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio changed by +0.87, +0.54, -0.04, and +0.09 percentage points, respectively. The company increased investment in sales and marketing, promoted digital transformation, and increased personnel and digital information investment. Overall, net profit margin rose by 1.47 percentage points to 16.83% in 2025.

Risk tips: Macroeconomic downturn, intensified market competition, and sales of main business underperforming expectations.

According to the data center of Securities Star, based on research reports published over the past three years, Ping An Securities researcher team led by Zhang Jinyi has conducted in-depth research on this stock, with an average prediction accuracy of 74.77%. They forecast a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.172 billion yuan for 2026, with a forecast P/E ratio of 23.39 based on current prices.

Latest profit forecast details are as follows:

In the past 90 days, 12 institutions have issued ratings for this stock, with 7 buy ratings, 4 overweight ratings, and 1 neutral rating; the average target price among institutions over the past 90 days is 63.8 yuan.

The above content is compiled by Securities Star based on publicly available information, generated by AI algorithms (Wangxin Suanbei No. 310104345710301240019), and does not constitute investment advice.