Melihat Dasar Pasar dari Indikator Fraksi Ganda: Strategi Pembeli Murah di Bawah Mekanisme Konfirmasi Tiga Tingkat

On-chain analysts recently shared their methodology for identifying market bottoms, emphasizing the use of multiple indicator scores for comprehensive assessment to determine the optimal timing for bottom-fishing and building positions. They have previously reduced holdings significantly before and after rate cuts and remain cautiously pessimistic about the market, predicting that liquidity conditions will not improve markedly within the year. The analyst clearly states that they will not intervene easily until specific conditions are met, but will wait for multiple score indicators to signal a bottom simultaneously.

Three Key Scores and Condition Confirmation

The initiation of bottom-fishing and position building requires the simultaneous fulfillment of three core conditions, forming a multi-layered confirmation mechanism. First is an extreme change in secondary market transaction structure—an absolute surge in turnover and ultra-high trading volume, typically interpreted as a sign of market participants capitulating; second is the on-chain score indicator MVRV-Z reaching a very low level, currently at a relatively high 0.77, which needs to further fall below the critical threshold of 0; third is the occurrence of systemic downturn events similar to the FTX collapse or BCH fork, which fully release market sentiment. Only when these three scores and event conditions are all met will full-position entry be triggered.

Liquidity Observation and Turnover Signal Significance

The appearance of large-volume turnover transactions in the market indicates a shift from passive holding to active exit points. This score-based volume confirmation mechanism is crucial for identifying genuine market bottoms. The analyst’s view reflects that relying solely on price scores is insufficient; multi-dimensional resonance verification involving transaction structure, on-chain holdings scores, and others is necessary. In the context of liquidity contraction, the release of turnover volume often signals panic and the completion of exit.

Historical Events and Market Surrender Points as References

Events like the FTX collapse and BCH fork are significant nodes that previously triggered sharp market declines. These iconic surrender events help market participants identify extreme sentiment scores. The analyst’s strategic framework indicates that if similar systemic shocks occur again in the future, combined with the synchronous confirmation of the other two scores, it will be the optimal time for deployment. To prepare for potential deep corrections, they have allocated funds for a further 40-50% decline.

Bottom-fishing strategy is not merely about price recovery but involves comprehensive judgment across multiple score dimensions—turnover volume scores, technical indicator scores, event shocks—to ensure the optimality and safety of position building.