Iran Shocks Could Spur A Shift To Clean Energy But Also To Coal

(MENAFN- Swissinfo) The war in Iran is choking off oil and gas supplies and spiking energy prices around the world. And for many environmentalists, that’s a powerful argument for countries to curb their use of fossil fuels and shift to wind, solar and other renewable sources. Select your language

Generated with artificial intelligence. Listening: Iran shocks could spur a shift to clean energy – but also to coal This content was published on March 12, 2026 - 10:00 11 minutes Brad Plumer and Lisa Friedman, reporting from Washington, The New York Times

But as the chaos forces nations to rethink their energy policies, the results could be messy – and cleaner options may not always be the winner.

Some countries in Europe and Asia may try to install more wind turbines, solar panels and batteries to buffer themselves against surges in the price of natural gas, as many did after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. If oil prices stay elevated, electric cars could become a more economical option for drivers from Brazil to the United States.

“This newest upheaval shows yet again that fossil fuel dependence leaves economies, businesses, markets and people at the mercy of each new conflict,” said Simon Stiell, the United Nations climate chief. Investing in renewable energy, he said, is“the obvious pathway to energy security.”

Yet other countries could respond to the supply crunch by burning more coal – a highly polluting fossil fuel, but cheap and readily available – or embracing U.S. natural gas. And if the Iran conflict causes interest rates to rise, that could make new renewable energy systems more expensive, analysts said.

The conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil and gas prices sharply higher, fuelling concerns about another energy crisis. Switzerland aims to phase out fossil fuels, yet remains heavily reliant on imported oil and gas, especially for transport and heating. Swissinfo is preparing a series of articles examining fossil fuels, the energy transition, and Switzerland’s dependence on imported energy in an international context.

The Trump administration, for its part, has been urging nations to use more oil and gas and is pitching the United States as a stable supplier of fossil fuels in a dangerous geopolitical era.

“It’s like an inkblot test,” said David Victor, a professor of public policy at the University of California, San Diego.“The war has reminded everybody of the powerful importance of energy security. And with that reminder, you have radically different responses.”

The war also underscores a notable shift in the global energy landscape. For years, many world leaders declared tackling global warming a top priority and called for a shift to cleaner energy sources that didn’t heat the planet. But recently, rising geopolitical and trade risks have spurred countries to look for homegrown sources of any kind of energy. That could include solar or nuclear power but also coal or gas.

A scramble for energy

The fighting in the Middle East has already exposed vulnerabilities in global energy markets. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and much of its natural gas normally travels by ship through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off the southern coast of Iran.

Since the war began, Iran has been attacking tankers in the strait and traffic has slowed to a crawl, cutting off critical energy supplies. International oil prices rose by as much as one-third before dropping somewhat over the past few days.

The shock waves have been profound.

Qatar, which supplies one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas, has halted gas production, leading to price spikes and factory shutdowns in faraway countries that rely on the fuel, including India, South Korea and Taiwan. In Vietnam,“sold out” signs are appearing at gasoline stations. In Pakistan, officials have urged four-day workweeks to save energy. Hungary and Croatia have imposed price controls on domestic fuels.

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In the short term, many countries are racing to secure energy supplies wherever they can. That often means scrambling for oil, gas and coal, which together still provide 80% of the world’s energy needs.

In Thailand, which typically imports much of its natural gas from Qatar, officials have ordered domestic coal plants to run at full capacity and the national oil and gas company to maximize local production to make up the shortfall. In Taiwan, officials have broached the possibility of restarting a shuttered coal plant.

In Europe, where natural gas prices have spiked more than 75% since the war began, nations are buying more U.S. liquefied natural gas, outbidding poorer countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh.

“In the short term, countries will get energy wherever they can find it,” said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, a research firm.“But in the long run, there’s room for a rethink.”

Rethinking oil and gas imports

Depending on the length and severity of the Iran conflict, some nations could seek to reduce their reliance on oil and gas imports from the Middle East in the coming years, experts said.

That could be a boon for U.S. gas exporters who can offer an alternative to gas shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past decade, thanks to advances in fracking technology, the United States has become by far the world’s biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas, a form of gas that has been cooled for shipment. U.S. companies are expected to double export capacity by 2031.

“The security argument for Qatari gas has really been undermined, and this is going to bolster the case for a lot of new LNG projects out there,” said Ira Joseph, a scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Some countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere could also turn to domestic sources of coal, the dirtiest of the fossil fuels but also widely available in many parts of the world. In recent years, nations such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Pakistan have all been developing new coal plants, and global coal consumption has reached record highs.

“If your goal is domestically produced energy and you’re South Africa or Indonesia or China, coal looks pretty good from energy security standpoint,” said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy.

A far less polluting option would be for countries to invest in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, which do not require fuel and could help insulate them from volatile swings in gas and oil markets.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and cut off gas supplies, Europe stepped up its investment in solar power, with installations surging from roughly 40 gigawatts per year to nearly 65 gigawatts per year. (One gigawatt produces roughly enough electricity at peak output to power 300,000 homes.)

Last year, nations spent more than $780 billion on renewable energy, according to the International Energy Agency, more than they invested in oil infrastructure.

“My expectation, if post-Ukraine energy development is any indicator, is that it will accelerate further in countries that do not have access to fossil fuels,” said Ani Dasgupta, head of the World Resources Institute, an environmental group.

A recent analysis from BloombergNEF, a research firm, suggested that the Iran conflict could give a boost to solar power and batteries, both of which have been rapidly falling in cost. Still, there are some obstacles that markets such as Europe and India will need to overcome, including grid congestion, land constraints and regulatory bottlenecks.

Nuclear power is another option. In Japan, which is highly dependent on imported natural gas, officials have been gradually restarting nuclear plants that were closed in 2011 after a reactor meltdown at Fukushima. Those efforts could take on a new urgency, since each nuclear plant generally displaces gas power.

Because clean energy and fossil fuels could both benefit, it is unclear what the shifting energy landscape would mean for greenhouse gas emissions.

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