Strategic Thinking on the Altcoin Market—Focus on the overall trend rather than minor fluctuations; prioritize structural changes over price movements — The overall trend determines survival or failure, while the structure determines the extent of gains (4)

Core Logic: The rise and fall of altcoins heavily depend on the “market environment” (Bitcoin trend, overall market sentiment) and “their own structure” (fund flow, consensus strength), rather than simply “price levels.” Low price ≠ undervalued; high price ≠ overvalued.

• How to judge the “big trend” (3 key indicators):

◦ Bitcoin trend: Bitcoin stabilizes above the 60-day moving average and weekly candles close green, indicating a “bullish trend”; Bitcoin falls below the 60-day moving average and trading volume continues to shrink, indicating a “weakening trend” (at this point, altcoins are likely to collectively retrace, even the strongest logic can’t reverse the trend).

◦ Market sentiment: Fear & Greed Index above 60 (greedy zone), suitable for trading altcoins; below 40 (fear zone), prefer to wait or hold lightly.

◦ Capital flow: Total crypto market cap has a net inflow of over $5 billion in 24 hours, with funds flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins (altcoin market cap share increases), indicating a “favorable trend for altcoins.”

• How to judge the “strength of structure” (4 core signals):

◦ K-line structure: Whether recent formation shows an “higher lows and higher highs” uptrend, and each correction does not break previous lows (support remains effective).

◦ Volume structure: Rising prices accompanied by increasing volume, falling prices with decreasing volume (strong buying interest, good chip locking); not rising with decreasing volume and falling with increasing volume (funds fleeing).

◦ Consensus structure: Active community users continue to grow, project GitHub commits remain stable (actual development happening), not just short-term hype from KOLs.

◦ Liquidity structure: Mainstream exchanges have good depth, slippage during buy-in is below 1%, and quick execution during sell-off (avoiding “can buy but can’t sell”).

• Abandon “price obsession”:

◦ Don’t buy “low-price traps”: a certain altcoin priced at $0.0001 (seems cheap), but with a market cap of $1 billion and no logical support, essentially a “high-valuation junk coin.”

◦ Don’t fear “high-priced quality coins”: an altcoin priced at $100 (seems expensive), but in the main track, with a continuously landing ecosystem, and a market cap lower than similar projects, essentially a “low-valuation quality coin.”

Implementation steps: During daily review, first check Bitcoin trend and market sentiment, then examine the target altcoin’s K-line, volume, and community data. Only if all three are positive should you consider entering.