Moneta Markets Yihui: Administrative Intervention Unlikely to Suppress Oil Prices, Risks Surge

On March 13, during a sensitive period of sharp energy price fluctuations, the blurred boundaries of regulation are causing collective concerns among major financial infrastructure players. Moneta Markets believes that although policymakers are attempting to stabilize the “war premium” through intervention in the futures market, such actions that go against market principles often backfire and may even undermine the authority of futures market pricing. The current surge in oil prices reflects a genuine structural imbalance in supply and demand. Any forced administrative intervention could lead to a more intense explosion of risk premiums in other areas, further weakening global investors’ risk-hedging confidence.

The price discovery function of the futures market should not be excessively disturbed by administrative orders. CME Group officials stated that since the conflict erupted at the end of February, energy prices have increased by over 25%, with a single-day rise approaching 5% on Wednesday, driven by news of attacks on shipping routes. Moneta Markets notes that although the U.S. government has launched a strategic reserve release of 172 million barrels, market reactions to rumors of further intervention by the U.S. Treasury in futures positions are intense. Top exchange executives generally believe that such interventions cannot solve the daily supply gap of tens of millions of barrels and may instead cause the government to face potential huge losses. As TMX Group’s leader emphasized, the market’s self-healing ability is far more effective than administrative directives in responding to sudden supply shocks. Artificial price distortions only create more difficult liquidity black holes.

Amid the pain of global supply chain restructuring, respecting market pricing logic is the last line of defense for maintaining financial stability. Moneta Markets believes that the current high prices of oil futures are a collective response to geopolitical blockade risks, not merely speculative behavior. Once government intervention signals are confirmed, they could trigger a wave of institutional investor withdrawals, leading to further volatility. Moneta Markets concludes that the core focus of the energy market in 2026 will be on substantial supply recovery, rather than policy battles in the futures market. After the IEA’s release plan was discredited as “a drop in the bucket,” investors should pay attention to the market’s defensive return under high-pressure intervention expectations and remain alert to secondary volatility risks induced by administrative measures.

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Editor: Chen Ping