Stay steadfast on the new cycle mainline without wavering!

【Like and Follow, Limit Up Can’t Stop Us】 [Taogu Ba]
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【Support and Tips, Holdings Keep Rising】**

Brothers, was last week’s review valuable? Did it live up to everyone’s expectations with 7 encouragement coupons and highlights?

Whether it was accurately predicting the 34-day price increase cycle ending on Monday, or the serious negative feedback from bulk verification on Tuesday, or drawing inspiration from the 2021 Two Sessions introducing new terms like carbon neutrality to signal a major cycle, and the upcoming cycle’s main theme being the new term “electric computing collaboration” proposed at this year’s Two Sessions — this week’s market clearly shows the predictions are coming true! Brothers, if you’ve gained something, remember to like, tip, and support with a triple support!

Of course, in the early stages of a new cycle, capital hasn’t formed a consensus yet, and the game is still quite intense. The market experienced bumps and bruises, and the loss effects on Friday seemed like they were about to end. But the big loss effects are still because the current market is still dominated by quantitative trading, amplifying these fluctuations. Anyway, I want to clearly state that I firmly believe the new cycle is about “electric computing collaboration” and won’t waver. I’ll explain the reasons below. First, let’s review this week’s trading ideas.

1. This Week’s Strategy Review

Monday:
Zhuolang Intelligence: Rallied then fell back, breaking the intraday moving average, unfollowed.
Strategy analysis: The bidding didn’t meet expectations; the opening rally couldn’t even turn red, so it was time to unfollow. Slightly adjusting the layout, once it broke the intraday moving average, there was no need to stay attached.

Hanlan Co.: Focus below the intraday moving average.
Strategy analysis: Since electric computing collaboration is the next major cycle theme, among the potential high-flyers in the sector, besides the abnormal move of Yunnan Energy, only Hanlan, which has crossed over from a big group, is worth attention. Today’s focus was just a quick attempt, not particularly ideal.

Huasheng Tiancai: Focus on the afternoon pullback after divergence, increased attention on the breakout above previous highs.
Strategy analysis: Huasheng should be a clear trend stock in the computing power direction. On Feb 26, it hit the limit and broke new highs; on Mar 3, it showed a pullback, and on Mar 4, it regained strength, confirming the trend.

Whether it was the pullback to the 5-day moving average on Mar 5 or the 10-day on Mar 6, both can be considered for attention. On Mar 9, it again pulled back to the 10-day, confirming support. Now there are two focus points: one is the anchored moving average — the 10-day probably won’t be tested again, so the 5-day can be watched; the other is to follow the breakout to new highs and attempt to start the main upward move again.

Tuesday:
Huasheng Tiancai: Opening pullback to the 5-day moving average, increased focus, but the rally was just short of breaking Monday’s high, so reduced focus.
Strategy analysis: Although Monday’s high was rejected, it’s still a trend stock, so the anchored moving average remains the main focus. The opening was at the 5-day, and the afternoon rally was just shy of a new high, indicating the new high isn’t happening, so it’s reasonable to lower focus. Since we’re in the early stage of the cycle, trend-following stocks should mainly be monitored with rolling adjustments, and unless the trend breaks, there’s no need to reduce focus prematurely.

Hanlan Co.: No change in pattern.
Strategy analysis: Monday’s surge and pullback, divergence expected on Tuesday, with small fluctuations, not ideal for rolling, just watch the show.

Wednesday:
Huasheng Tiancai: No change in pattern.
Strategy analysis: Actually, it should have continued rolling today. The focus wasn’t on Huasheng at the open, and by the time I noticed, it had already risen, so no additional focus, just watch.

Hanlan Co.: No change in pattern.
Strategy analysis: As mentioned earlier, Hanlan and Yunnan Energy are two stocks with potential to hit new highs in the sector. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the main comparison was their performance. On Wednesday, Yunnan Energy was far stronger than Hanlan. But to hit a high, no new high means no confirmation of strength, so Yunnan Energy’s strength on Wednesday doesn’t mean Hanlan has no chance. Continue observing.

China West Electric: Watch for a break below the 5-day moving average.
Strategy analysis: West Electric’s pattern is different — after a new high breakout + pullback confirmation + resumption of strength, it shows a trend. It quickly pulled away from previous highs after the breakout, confirming the trend. So, the pullback to key moving averages remains a focus.

Thursday:
Huasheng Tiancai: Early pullback below the 5-day, rolling focus increased by more than 5%, but in the late session, it rose again to the intraday moving average, reducing focus.
Strategy analysis: As long as the trend persists, breaking below the 5-day is a reasonable focus. The position is already sufficient, mainly rolling. The late session could have been a good opportunity for a larger roll, but I left early, so the main force might have been waiting for me to leave?

Hanlan Co.: Opening green, focus increased, then near 5% rise, focus reduced.
Strategy analysis: Still comparing with Yunnan Energy. Yunnan Energy was strong yesterday, just one step away from a new high, but it didn’t dare to open above the previous high, nor did it push for a new high immediately, indicating it’s not that strong. Since Yunnan Energy didn’t show the expected strength, funds naturally shifted back to Hanlan, which has no regulatory pressure and can still rise three limit-ups without issues.

At the open, Hanlan jumped from green to red, slightly above the open, while Yunnan Energy opened below the reference point, signaling a shift. So, I added Hanlan at the open. Of course, whether it can succeed is uncertain, so I rolled out near Wednesday’s high and then hit the limit-up, continuing the pattern.

China West Electric: Increase focus in the afternoon.
Strategy analysis: After failing to hold above the 5-day on Wednesday, the open today also didn’t push back above the 5-day, so the expectation shifted toward the 10-day. During the peak adjustment, West Electric’s lowest point was just one cent away from the gap, showing some support, so increased focus.

Friday:
Huasheng Tiancai: Early break below the 10-day, down more than 8%, increased focus; late session hit the limit-down, last chance to increase focus.
Strategy analysis: Whether it was the deep dip below the 10-day in the morning or the late limit-down low, both referenced the relatively few limit-down stocks at the time. Huasheng, as a core trend in computing power, shouldn’t have hit the limit-down. But in the late session, panic selling intensified, and it was ultimately locked at the limit-down. Still, even with the limit-down, Monday is expected to recover. If it can’t recover or the recovery is weak, and it can’t get back above the 10-day, it should exit.

Hanlan Co.: Focus increased at the 5-day level in the morning.
Strategy analysis: Opened at a new high, pulled back, then rose again to refresh intraday highs. The opening was proactive, but later, due to profit-taking and sector divergence, it was heavily sold off. By close, Yunnan Energy hit the limit-down, while Hanlan didn’t even touch the limit-down price, indicating some funds still want to play. Watch the feedback on Monday.

China West Electric: No change in pattern.
Strategy analysis: Yesterday’s early focus was increased, and today’s break below the 10-day was not far. If it can’t get back above the 10-day on Monday, unfollow.

Huadian Energy: Opened with a dip, pullback to about 3% below the 5-day, focus.
Strategy analysis: This is a high-low expectation. If Hanlan and Yunnan Energy at high levels can’t hit new highs, then new attempts will be at lower levels. For low positions, key nodes like the first board or breakout stocks on Tuesday are worth noting. Huadian was chosen because it opened at a reasonable level and its monthly chart looks good.

Summary: The early stage of the cycle is still quite challenging. Not only do you need to pick the right direction and stocks, but also rely heavily on micro-manipulation. Last Thursday, profits were decent, but Friday wiped them out with small losses. Still, believe in the power of the cycle. Early on, it’s about trial and error. Even with poor cards, small gains or losses are normal. If you get a good hand and break out of the trend, your account will leap.

2. This Week’s Market Review

Monday:
After weekend conflicts and news, on Monday, oil and gas sectors surged massively, opening sharply higher, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum nearly hitting a 20cm limit. But as I mentioned in last Friday’s review,

At the end of the price increase cycle, Monday was the 34th day, the last day of the cycle. Under such circumstances, even a big gap-up in the sector wouldn’t lead to a rally, as Tuesday marks the end of the cycle. Sure enough, oil and gas chemicals opened high and then fell sharply, creating a huge negative feedback.

Any early attempts to chase would have resulted in significant intra-day declines, not to mention the next day’s provisions.

In contrast, the power grid sector opened low and rose steadily, with the daily K-line showing four consecutive positive days, in a quantitative rotation environment, supported by the Two Sessions’ electric computing collaboration proposal. Although the price increase cycle isn’t fully over, the new cycle’s main theme is very clear. Besides electricity, the weekend’s fermentation of the lobster theme, leaning towards computing, also showed some strength. Despite a mediocre opening, in the afternoon, when divergence appeared in the electric sector, the lobster stocks surged, with even large-cap stocks like Tuowei hitting two consecutive limit-ups. Whether it’s electricity or computing, the electric computing collaboration from the Two Sessions will be a key direction moving forward.

Tuesday:

Bulk verification of the oil and gas chemical sector, led by Tongyuan, announced the end of the price increase cycle. Looking back, from Jan 13, when the index shifted from a main rise to consolidation, and the aerospace cycle retreated, with Tongyuan and Hunan Silver breaking out, to this Monday’s 34 trading days, and the large-scale verification on Tuesday, the cycle ended. Fibonacci sequence again predicted the cycle duration — isn’t that magical?

Since the cycle ended, a new cycle is emerging. The electric sector, after four consecutive positive days, showed slight divergence, with the power sector, especially Yunnan Energy and Longhua, showing signs of strength. The main focus was on the divergence between the two. Despite the rebound, the two sectors with the best chance to resonate with the index, electric and computing, showed divergence. It’s quite surprising. But divergence is divergence. The five-day positive trend in electricity remains strong. Some say market rotation lacks persistence, but now electricity has shown persistence.

Wednesday:
The index continued to rebound, recovering broadly and re-breaking all moving averages. However, within the electric computing collaboration, divergence increased, with Ningbo Construction’s massive volume making it a high flyer. The electric sector also showed divergence: equipment and cable companies like China West Electric and Hanlan continued to weaken, while the green energy + computing sector strengthened, especially with the electric power sector closing with a sixth consecutive positive day!

Since the previous price increase cycle, a strange phenomenon has appeared in sector linkage. Historically, sector linkage didn’t differentiate much; stocks within the same major theme would generally move together. But since the price increase cycle, different sub-sectors under the same major theme have shown very different rhythms. For example, on the same day, oil & gas, chemicals, and metals could have a big rise, a big fall, or mixed movements. In previous cycles, a big rise in one sector didn’t mean others would fall sharply.

Now, in the electric computing collaboration cycle, the same applies. Different sub-sectors like equipment, cables, energy generation, dispatching, and computing power have very different rhythms. On Wednesday, energy generation led the strength, while others diverged.

Thursday:
With the Two Sessions ending and the expectation of stability fading, plus external conflicts impacting sentiment, the index saw a significant correction in the morning, with over 4,000 stocks falling. But even during the most panic moments, only Wangli fell to the limit, and by close, only two non-ST stocks hit the limit-down.

This low number of limit-down stocks indicates the correction was just a paper tiger. The afternoon saw a V-shaped recovery. Whether during the morning’s continued decline or the afternoon’s rebound, the electric computing collaboration sector, especially green energy + computing, remained resilient. The rebound further solidified the new cycle’s main theme.

Friday:
External geopolitical tensions remain unstable, and funds are taking profits to avoid weekend uncertainties. The main theme again showed significant divergence, and under the influence of amplified quant fluctuations, some stocks suffered notable losses, with the number of limit-down stocks rising sharply to 13. Due to geopolitical factors, the chemical sector performed relatively well. Some might wonder if the price increase cycle isn’t over yet? Or if electric computing collaboration isn’t the new cycle? I’ve already explained why I firmly believe in the electric computing collaboration as the new cycle!

Previously, I mentioned a condition for a sector to become a sustained hotspot: 10+300+3 — do you remember? 10 means about ten stocks hitting limit-up on the day; 300 indicates smart funds recognizing and pushing for 20cm or 30cm limit-ups; 3 means more than three stocks with over three limit-ups. If the current chemical price increase cycle is ongoing, why did the 20cm limit-up of Chuankin Nuo break? Look at electric computing collaboration.

Even today, despite big divergence and sector declines, there are still over ten limit-up stocks, including 20cm limit-ups (Tongyu Heavy Industry) and stocks with more than three limit-ups (Huadian Energy, Jinniu Chemical). It’s clear whether it’s a price increase cycle or the electric computing collaboration cycle. Of course, the wind power branch, besides electric computing collaboration, also has the logic of exporting to Europe, which is a flexible position.

Summary: As the first week of the electric computing collaboration new cycle, the journey was bumpy. Think back to the early days of the aerospace cycle — it wasn’t smooth either. Back then, the old cycle (Straits) rotated periodically, aerospace stocks sometimes plunged, and many other news-driven rotations occurred. There were many disturbances. But that didn’t prevent aerospace from eventually becoming a 55-day big cycle, and at the end, it even staged a crazy wave. Now, in the early stage of the electric computing collaboration cycle, it’s similar. Our task is to stay firm on this main theme, discard the weak, and hold the strong. Some stocks with deteriorating trends should be sold, while some resilient or counter-trend stocks could be the core in the next phase — look for opportunities to switch.

3. Next Week’s Outlook

First, clarify that the Friday loss-reality was mainly caused by external geopolitical factors leading some funds to cash out to avoid weekend uncertainties, which further amplified fluctuations through quantitative trading. Will this geopolitical impact be large or lasting? Recall how the market reacted when conflicts first started: on March 2, oil and gas sectors surged massively, with some stocks hitting limit-up. On March 3, the index plunged with a big red candle, over 4,000 points down, dozens of stocks hitting limit-down. That was the market’s initial reaction. And now? The reaction is much milder, indicating the impact is gradually diminishing. Therefore, as the situation eases next week, risk-averse funds will gradually return to the market. When they do, the current main theme, electric computing collaboration, remains the best choice.

Since the index shifted from a main rise to consolidation on Jan 13, after 34 trading days of oscillation, it formed a right foot on March 9, and a new cycle began on March 10. Although the overall structure is still in a box-range oscillation, it actually marks the first phase of a new upward cycle. The index is gradually moving from the March 9 low toward around 4200, starting from the bottom of the box and moving upward. This process also corresponds to the first phase of the electric computing collaboration cycle. Until the index fully breaks out of the box, this phase won’t end. The current choppy pattern will continue.

Therefore, regardless of how optimistic you are about a stock, chasing high or hitting the board is still a low-cost move at this stage. Instead, stocks maintaining the trend, pulling back to key moving averages for low-cost entry, will have higher chances. Even if they fail or the trend breaks, the loss won’t be significant. As for sub-sector directions, since sector divergence was prominent today, the wind power branch remains strong, so next week, focus there. Also, some anti-dip or counter-trend stocks like GCL System Integration, Southern Power Grid Digital, China Energy Construction, etc., can be considered for reasonable pullback positions.

That’s the review for this week. Creating content isn’t easy. Thanks to brothers who like, support, tip, and comment every day. If this article helps you, please support with a like, tip, and support package!

Next is the support leaderboard:
Weekly review leaderboard:

Long one @Sitting and suddenly enlightened 3000 points

Long two @Handsome Dragon Seven 2000 points

Long three and four @Red Alert 666 @horse1010 1000 points

Support list:

Thanks to brothers for your support! Current members of the Gold Fan Group: @ShenquanA @HongzhouMingGe @Damingbai8 @FengGaoMaster @nikkkkki @YizhengFeng @WalnutBigPouch @Pujie007 @NianhuaGuoFen @bjt789 @LiumaDamoArrow @ShanshuiHavesMeetXS @FengxingAStock @MobileSD @GuYifaShi @JinanXiaoSong @YuyanQiu @FlowerInMidSummer666 @YuXi @Suidaxia @SittingAndSuddenlyEnlightened @Cassssper @SuperShortMainRise @WuhuaBiao @LaoBrother @BrotherD1991 @RedAlert666 @QianlongFamily123 — Thanks to the big guys for your support and trust!

Finally, it’s been a while since I did a live broadcast. After moving to a new home recently, things are stabilizing. Maybe I can try to do a live again? My new cycle trading method is quite different from the ultra-short ones before. I feel like doing a live session to explain it to everyone — there’s a lot of content, writing detailed posts is tiring, so a live might be more relaxed. Brothers, are you interested? If yes, please send some support tickets to urge the broadcast. If enough people are interested, I’ll apply to Taogu Ba. Also, I hope the 7 encouragement coupons won’t be discontinued. Thanks for your support!

【Disclaimer】: All stocks mentioned in this article are for observation and research exchange only, not investment advice. The stock market involves risks; please trade cautiously!