Five years into the market, still feeling very confused

My investment journey

I graduated with a bachelor’s degree in 2020 and entered the internet industry. I know that internet careers are often short-lived, so I wanted to plan ahead and save enough money before turning 35. My family elders only knew about fixed-term bank deposits. At that time, I happened to come across some fund advertisements, so I started investing in funds in July 2020. I bought China Europe Medical and Zhang Kun’s E Fund Blue Chip, learning a lot about technical analysis along the way. I kept buying during market dips. After receiving my year-end bonus before 2021, I went all-in, which led to being trapped in positions afterward.

Later, I learned some basics from bank screw-in products. Although my experience with screw-in investment advisory products was not good, they served as my investment guides, for which I am still grateful. I also experienced deep losses in Chinese internet stocks during undervalued periods, which was very painful. In 2022, I became interested in dividend yield as an indicator, buying some bank stocks and dividend low-volatility indices. Luckily, these investments helped soothe my mood and prevented me from giving up on the stock market entirely. During this period, I also tried using yield-to-maturity to select convertible bonds. Fortunately, none of them defaulted, and each yielded good returns.

Between 2023 and 2024, the big bear market made me lose interest in financial management, and I stopped paying much attention to the market. I only maintained some dollar-cost averaging investments. Fortunately, these investments allowed me to recover my principal and even make a few tens of thousands during the period around September 24. That’s when I decided to deepen my investment knowledge again.

In 2025, during a major bull market, I am naturally very cautious. I only achieved a 12.85% return for the year, mainly because about one-third of my portfolio was in government bonds, which lagged far behind the market. With the rise of AI, I’ve also felt how much AI has improved work efficiency. I don’t doubt that in a few years, AI will significantly reduce the number of jobs similar to mine. Therefore, I believe it’s important to develop sustainable investment skills to earn stable income before being replaced.

Investment Strategy

I currently have 1 million yuan in available funds, with an additional 300,000 yuan per year (only guaranteed for the next three to four years). I aim to achieve higher returns with minimal drawdowns.

I backtested daily data on CSI Dividend and Low-Volatility Dividend indices, which suggest about 10% annualized return and a maximum drawdown of around 18% (excluding the 2018 event, where the max drawdown was about 10%). I plan to use some positions to rotate through convertible bonds, mainly based on yield-to-maturity as a key factor. I also follow some reputable influencers and their portfolios on Xueqiu (mainly value investors), writing scripts to monitor their rebalancing periodically, as I don’t have much time to watch markets constantly. My future allocations are as follows:

• CSI Dividend 20%
• Low-Volatility Dividend 20%
• Convertible Bond Rotation 20%
• Stock picks based on research (including some IPO gains) 20%
• Cash 20%

Currently, I have no plans to buy a house in the next five years, and my family doesn’t have other financial needs for me. However, I feel there are few strategies with moderate to low risk and stable returns. Recently, I’ve been looking into stock index futures discounts—unsure if this counts. I’d appreciate guidance from experienced investors. As I age and AI develops, my anxiety is growing. Thanks in advance for your advice.