Global Supply Chain Restructuring and Spring Planting Cycle Resonance: Insights from the US-Iran Conflict on Fertilizer Impact

The Middle East conflict has not only driven up the global energy hub but also directly threatened the “core lifeline” of the global fertilizer supply chain.

The logic of the current fertilizer industry has gone beyond the traditional supply and demand cycle framework, entering a new three-dimensional driven stage of “geopolitical premium + resource scarcity revaluation + food security strategicization.”

In the short term, the Middle East conflict directly impacts global urea supply expectations, combined with the rigid demand for spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere, causing fertilizer prices to enter an upward trend. In the medium term, normalized geopolitical risks will prompt countries to establish strategic fertilizer reserves, shifting the industry from a “just-in-time” to a “just-in-case” inventory model, bringing systemic demand growth. In the long term, the scarcity of non-renewable resources such as phosphate rock and potash is increasingly evident, while emerging demands like energy storage open growth ceilings. Leading companies with upstream resources will benefit from double increases in valuation and profits.

The core feature of this fertilizer cycle is “resources are king, strategy is the guiding principle.” Companies with strategic reserves of resources like potassium and phosphorus, and continuous capacity expansion, will enjoy the industry cycle’s benefits.