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I figured out a fundamental flaw that the house never considered when they built binary options. Today has been mind-blowing.
What’s the flaw? Well consider this. The market usually moves strongly in one direction. Bet that way and you’re wrong: you lose, the house wins. But what if instead of selling at a loss, you took the other side of the trade? Now, you’re sitting pretty in cheap shares if the market continues in that direction. If it resolves in the original direction, you lose smaller than you would have without a hedge.
The theory: most of the time the market will resolve in the direction it’s going - no hedge necessary. But often the early move gets faded. Now those shares you bought at 85c are about to resolve to $0. But your hedge at $0.35? It’s winning bigger than your loser.
The times you win with no hedge are steady income. Now you just need the hedge trades to pan out around 45% of the time (in reality it’s likely higher) and you’re profitable.
Now you have 2/3 outcomes that can win.
1. Both sides hit 0.97-99 (TP there) - biggest win
2. Hedge side hits 97-99 (TP there) - smaller win
3. Original side wins (net loss)
Do with this what you will. I’ve already said too much. The Polymarket degens will be all over me for this no doubt.