#原油价格上涨 Don't Mistake a Rebound for a Reversal

The intensifying Middle East conflict has spilled over into the crude oil market, truly "adding fuel to the fire." Oil prices have taken off again, defying headwinds such as the IEA's announcement of releasing 4 billion barrels of emergency petroleum reserves. Crude surged powerfully through the $90 barrier, with WTI crude reaching a high of $95.97 per barrel. Is this the start of a new rally? Little Finance God advises everyone to approach this rationally—this increase looks more like a rebound rather than a reversal.

👉 U.S.-Iran Conflict Unlikely to Resolve Short-term; Oil Prices Will Fluctuate at High Levels

First, let's understand why oil prices could soar against two major headwinds—Trump's statement that military action would end and the IEA's announcement of releasing 4 billion barrels of emergency reserves. The fundamental reason is that the U.S.-Iran war will be difficult to mediate in the short term. Today, Iran's President Pezeshkian presented the "only way" to end the current war sparked by the U.S. and Israel: recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of war reparations, and firm international guarantees to prevent future aggression. The second condition shows Iran's weak desire for a ceasefire. The U.S. and Israel cannot possibly accept humiliating war reparations without being at a disadvantage, especially since the current war initiative lies in U.S.-Israeli hands. Against this backdrop, transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains problematic. Early today, Iran's new supreme leader stated the Strait of Hormuz must be closed, and with Oman's crude export terminals fully evacuated and Iraqi oil ports suspended, Middle Eastern oil exports collectively face "difficult deliveries," making it hard to ease high oil prices in the short term.

👉 Crude Oil Differs from Gold; Speculative Trading Is Difficult to Sustain

Many investors ask whether the U.S.-Iran war signals the beginning of a bull market in crude oil, naturally comparing it to the previous gold bull market. However, the two have fundamental differences. Gold, as a low-flow precious metal with wealth storage value, is recognized due to its low output, rarity, and universally acknowledged value. As a resource not needed in daily life, similar to Bitcoin, its price can be arbitrarily inflated, and it will experience a long-term bull market in the future. But oil is a basic industrial resource used in daily production and resource processing. Unless there's a fundamental long-term change in supply (such as the U.S.-Iran war developing into a prolonged conflict or OPEC implementing sustained production cuts), prices won't continuously climb northward, and short-term speculation is more likely. Moreover, it's worth noting that with new energy flourishing today, crude oil demand is gradually declining. From a long-term perspective, it lacks the foundation for a bull market.

👉 Oil Prices Will Still Retreat to Around $70 Long-term; Pay Close Attention to Resistance Near $100

Global oil supply is projected to increase 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with total annual supply reaching 106.3 million barrels per day, while demand is only 104.3 million barrels per day, indicating a clear oversupply situation. The core logic behind this rally is the Strait of Hormuz shipping concerns triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict. Once the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal transit, Iranian crude exports return to normal channels, combined with OPEC+ releasing idle capacity, war premiums in oil prices will be quickly erased. Around $70 represents the reasonable price center determined by supply-demand relationships. These next few days, pay close attention to Brent crude's breakthrough around $100. If it can effectively break through and hold above $100, you can pursue a long position short-term; otherwise, you can boldly short crude oil with stop-loss set above $105.

What are your thoughts on crude oil prices? Will it experience a long-term bull run? Feel free to comment and interact. Wishing everyone daily profits!