Component Price Hikes Combine with European Energy Supply Risks—Has Solar's "Dawn" Arrived?

The previous round of shortages and price increases for photovoltaic modules was caused by the European energy crisis resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Now, with ongoing tensions in Iran and disruptions to oil and gas supply chains, Europe faces the risk of falling into another energy crisis.

So, will the photovoltaic industry experience a new wave of shortages and price hikes this time? In fact, since 2026, the prices of photovoltaic modules have been steadily rising. This is due to the rush to export before the cancellation of export tax rebate policies and the rising costs of photovoltaic silver paste driven by the continuous increase in silver prices.

Recently, there have been reports that the leading photovoltaic company JinkoSolar has begun notifying customers that starting from March 2026, products over 650 watts and other specialized process products will implement a price increase plan. Compared to previous lows, the average increase is about 30% to 40%.

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Is Europe’s energy supply facing another crisis?

According to an article in International Petroleum Economics, the European energy crisis in 2022 was due to the fragility of Europe’s energy security system. Europe’s energy consumption still heavily relies on oil and natural gas, with low domestic production. The high levels of oil and gas imports mainly come from Russia, making Europe highly dependent on Russian energy trade.

In 2021, oil and natural gas accounted for nearly 60% of Europe’s primary energy consumption.

After the last energy crisis, Europe increased the development of renewable energy and also boosted imports of LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the US and the Middle East, especially from Qatar.

Now, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have again disrupted Europe’s oil and gas supply. Li Qi (pseudonym), an industry insider in the photovoltaic sector, told Daily Economic News, “Currently, tensions in Iran continue, and geopolitical conflicts are disrupting traditional energy supply chains, pushing up fossil fuel prices and increasing market volatility. Global energy security issues and the urgent need for clean energy independence have once again become focal points. Photovoltaics have already become a key alternative to traditional energy, and with the addition of precise energy storage integration, their value will be rediscovered, potentially leading to explosive demand growth and new growth opportunities.”

Another photovoltaic industry worker, Zhang Ran (pseudonym), told reporters, “The Middle East situation will accelerate Europe’s energy transition urgency, and the strategic position of solar and storage in the energy system will be somewhat strengthened.”

A staff member from Huabao New Energy told Daily Economic News, “Because Europe’s energy supply system is relatively fragile and easily affected by external factors, ongoing energy price fluctuations could significantly impact European residents’ electricity and daily life. Therefore, we have been closely monitoring European household needs. A few days ago, we launched a new product for courtyard and balcony solar storage overseas, which will support Europe’s energy transition.”

Can photovoltaic module prices rise further?

Since 2026, photovoltaic module manufacturers have gradually increased their prices. Module prices have risen from about 0.7 yuan per watt to around 0.9 yuan per watt, with some high-end modules even surpassing 1 yuan per watt.

According to data from photovoltaic consulting firm InfoLink, the current TOPCon (tunneling oxide passivated contact) module prices are approximately 0.85 to 0.9 yuan per watt. Actual transaction prices are generally between 0.68 and 0.70 yuan per watt for centralized systems, and between 0.76 and 0.83 yuan per watt for distributed systems.

In other words, the price increases are more about higher quoted prices rather than actual transaction prices.

InfoLink believes that recent noticeable rebounds in module prices are mainly driven by passive price increases due to rising silver prices, rather than genuine demand improvement.

So, will the current Iran tensions push photovoltaic module prices higher?

Zhang Ran told reporters, “Regarding price increases, recent module price rises are the result of combined factors such as costs, policy, and market sentiment. The Iran conflict’s energy concerns should further reinforce this trend, but it also depends on the persistence of the conflict.”

Li Qi also said, “Photovoltaics, with advantages like short construction cycles, cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and universality, have become an important solution for both centralized and distributed energy. Meanwhile, countries worldwide are treating energy storage as ‘energy security infrastructure’ and are implementing key investment support policies. Coupled with the expansion of AI computing centers, electricity market reforms, and national carbon neutrality goals, these factors will drive growth in both photovoltaic and energy storage installations.”

Daily Economic News