【US Stock Pre-market】Dow Futures Down 217 Points, Nasdaq Futures Down 0.3% Brent Crude Oil Climbs Back Above $100 (Continuously Updated)

Oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked by Iranian unmanned boats, causing oil prices to surge again. Brent crude futures rose by over 10%, briefly surpassing $100 per barrel. Chubb Insurance announced it will be the primary underwriter for a $20 billion plan led by the U.S. government, aimed at insuring ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in cooperation with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), to help oil tankers and commercial vessels resume navigation amid Iran-related risks.

U.S. stock futures declined before the market open on Thursday, with Dow futures down 217 points at 47,231, S&P 500 futures down 23 points at 6,755, and Nasdaq futures down 70 points or 0.3% at 24,913. Today, the U.S. will release last week’s initial unemployment claims and January new home construction data.

The U.S. dollar index recovered above 99, currently at 99.36; concerns about inflation slowing the Fed’s rate hikes have pushed the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury above 4.2%, currently at 4.22%. International gold is at $5,190 per ounce, up 0.2%.

Goldman Sachs has raised its Q4 2026 Brent crude and NYMEX crude oil price forecasts from $66 and $62 to $71 and $67 per barrel, citing the current Iran war situation and longer-than-expected disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank also warned that if the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz persists until the end of March, international oil prices could exceed the 2008 high, potentially rising above $147 per barrel. Goldman Sachs’ baseline assumption is that oil supplies passing through the Strait will be reduced to 10% of normal for about 21 days, longer than their previous estimate of 10 days, after which transportation is expected to gradually recover.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【18:20】Dow futures down 217 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.3%, Brent crude surpasses $100

【13:33】Dow futures down 496 points at 46,952; S&P futures down 59 points at 6,720; Nasdaq futures down 222 points or 0.9% at 24,760.

【13:26】【ORCL Analysis】Oracle’s earnings jump 9% after strong results; JPMorgan upgrades outlook, optimistic on long-term value of data management business

【12:59】【US Stock Focus】Short positions hit over 3-year high; Goldman Sachs: positive news could trigger “extreme” rally in US stocks

【11:51】【Oil Price Analysis】IEA releases oil reserves; prices rise nearly 9%. Analysis: “A drop in the bucket,” short-term volatility expected

【11:20】【Iran Crisis】Morgan Stanley maintains forecast of two rate cuts by the Fed this year, but oil shocks may delay easing until September

【11:04】【Yen Trend】Yen approaches lowest of the year, at 4.92 HKD; outlook suggests higher thresholds for official intervention

【10:58】【Iran Crisis】Oxford Economics: If oil stays at $140 for two months, global recession and 5.8% inflation could occur

【10:07】【Apple】Rumors: Foldable iPhone may feature iPad-like interface; wide-screen ratio could be a key selling point

【09:54】【US Tariffs】US initiates new trade investigations on 16 partners including China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, paving the way for new tariffs

【08:32】【Gold Trend】Gold declines for the second day, affected by rising oil prices and bleak rate hike outlook

【07:28】【Iran Crisis】Two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf caught fire and exploded; Brent crude surges past $100; Iranian officials hint at blocking Red Sea entry (ongoing updates)

【07:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA members agree to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves; US releases 170 million barrels, Japan 80 million, South Korea 22.46 million, UK 13.5 million

Below $1: US Market Conditions on March 11

Wednesday: US military warns Iran civilians to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, warning of attack targets; oil prices up 4%; Dow drops 289 points; Nasdaq stable

The U.S. Central Command issued a warning to Iranian civilians, alleging Iran is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military activities, threatening international shipping, and becoming legitimate military targets under international law. Oil prices rose again, with the Dow falling up to 520 points.

Market Close:

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The Dow closed at 47,417, down 289 points; the S&P 500 retreated 0.08% to 6,775; Nasdaq edged up 0.08% to 22,716. Oracle’s earnings and outlook exceeded expectations, soaring 9.2%; Nvidia rose 0.7%.

Oil prices continued to rise, with NYMEX at $87.25, up 4.55%; Brent at $91.98, up 4.76%.

Iranian media reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the vessel Mayuree Naree was attacked after ignoring warnings from IRGC Navy. According to shipping website marinetraffic, Mayuree Naree is in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The French news agency AFP quoted a military spokesperson saying: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil shipment through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed to benefit the U.S., Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement that 32 member countries agreed on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest ever, to address the oil market chaos caused by Middle East war.

Chubb Insurance will lead a U.S.-government-led plan to insure ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a $20 billion initiative, Chubb will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and commercial ships resume navigation amid Iran-related risks.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations, with overall CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, and monthly increase at 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Core CPI held steady at 2.5% annually, but monthly growth slowed to 0.2%. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of soaring international oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

The Trump administration reportedly will launch trade investigations to pave the way for new tariffs; The New York Times cited sources saying that after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariff agenda, the Biden administration will announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering digital service taxes and currency manipulation, marking an important step in rebuilding the “tariff wall.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Dow opens 22 points lower at 47,683; Nasdaq up 0.3% at 22,765; S&P up 7 points at 6,788.

【19:04】Dow futures up 133 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.2%; S&P futures up 16 points.

【01:50】Dow futures up 121 points at 47,866; S&P futures up 18 points at 6,805; Nasdaq futures up 58 points or 0.2% at 25,041.

【12:47】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise, Fed’s stance turns hawkish? Bank of America: market may misjudge situation; large rate cuts still possible

【10:48】【Iran Crisis】EIA forecasts Brent crude will stay above $95 for the next two months, expected to fall back to around $70 by year-end

【09:53】Nvidia partners with competitors of OpenAI, providing 1 gigawatt Vera Rubin chips to Thinking Machines

【08:59】【Fed Chair】Senator Thom Tillis meets with Waller, reiterates opposition to Powell nomination before DOJ investigation ends

【08:31】【Iran Crisis】IEA proposes releasing over 180 million barrels of oil reserves; oil prices shift from rising to falling

【07:45】【AI & Defense】Anthropic reports its AI tools are blacklisted, risking billions in losses

【07:25】【AI & ORCL】Oracle beats earnings estimates, jumps 8% after hours

【06:26】【Iran Crisis】Iran plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz; thousands in stock; Trump warns of unprecedented military consequences (ongoing updates)

Below $1: US Market Conditions on March 9

Monday: Trump says war nearly over; oil prices plunge, Dow rises 239 points

In an interview, President Trump claimed the war is nearly over, describing it as very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force, and their missiles are mostly destroyed. Their drones are being shot down everywhere, including their manufacturing plants.

Market Close:

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“Look at them, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. “The U.S. can do many things in the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening Iran with consequences if they obstruct the waterway. “They’ve shot all their missiles; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be their end… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You’ll never hear that name again.” Trump also claimed the strait is currently open, with ships entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

Later that afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We’ve just begun fighting” and “No mercy.”

Following the statements, oil prices tumbled, and stocks rebounded. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2; NYMEX crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially plunged 886 points to 46,615; the S&P 500 fell 1.5% to 6,636; Nasdaq dropped 1.5% to 22,061.

By close, the Dow recovered 239 points to 47,740; the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,795; Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 22,695.

Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves via IEA to counter the spike after Gulf tensions.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency reserves after the Iran conflict.

In Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves if needed.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, with no supply issues reported so far.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate releasing oil reserves. Given current circumstances, the G7 agrees to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures, including releasing reserves.” He also mentioned that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials are involved. An upcoming G7 energy ministers’ meeting will discuss further steps.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries control over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves, mostly crude oil, under OECD control. All members are required to maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, sufficient to support three months of consumption under normal conditions.

Markets stabilized, with the U.S. dollar index down 0.1% at 98.877; 10-year Treasury yields steady at 4.107%.

Gold’s decline narrowed to 0.6%, at $5,138 per ounce; silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.

The U.S. military continues to demonstrate force. According to BBC, B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at RAF Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict began.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” strategic bombers, signaling potential large-scale air campaigns or escalation. With their large payload capacity, once enemy air defenses are weakened, they can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions to destroy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, U.S. stock markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits amid volatility, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, the bank expects that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank will continue to monitor the situation closely. No significant damage to energy infrastructure has been reported; Iran’s military power appears to be weakening, and solutions involving safeguarding shipping to keep the Strait of Hormuz open remain feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining that prices are likely to peak at current or slightly higher levels.