Alibaba (BABA) Will Report Q3 Earnings on March 19. Options Traders Expect a Major Move in BABA Stock

Alibaba BABA -0.41% ▼ is expected to report its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, March 19, 2026. BABA stock has declined 7% year-to-date due to rising competition and uncertainty around China’s economy and regulations. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 7.31% move in either direction in BABA stock in reaction to Q3 FY26 earnings.

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What to Watch in BABA’s Earnings on March 19

For Alibaba, investors will focus first on its AI and cloud businesses. The company has been investing heavily in its Qwen AI models and cloud infrastructure to build a growth engine beyond e-commerce. In the September quarter, Alibaba Cloud revenue rose 34% year-over-year to RMB 39.8 billion, driven by strong demand for AI computing. Investors will watch whether that momentum continued in the December quarter and if AI-related product revenue can extend its nine-quarter streak of triple-digit growth.

Another key area is recent leadership changes in the AI team. The technical head of the Qwen model, Lin Junyang, recently stepped down, marking the third senior exit from the unit this year. CEO Eddie Wu has since taken a more direct role in AI development, forming a new internal team to oversee the work. Markets will look for updates on whether these changes affect Alibaba’s AI plans.

Next, attention will turn to the core e-commerce business. Taobao and Tmall still generate most of Alibaba’s revenue, but growth has been pressured by weak consumer spending in China and strong competition from rivals such as PDD Holdings PDD -1.83% ▼ . Investors will watch for signs that sales and user activity are stabilizing.

Finally, markets will focus on spending plans and outlook. Alibaba has said it plans to invest heavily in AI infrastructure over the next few years, which could lift capital spending. Investors will want clarity on how these investments will support cloud growth while still allowing the company to improve profits and maintain shareholder returns, including its ongoing share buyback program.

**Analysts’ Expectations for BABA’s Q3 Results **

Wall Street analysts expect earnings of $1.63 per share, down from $3.10 in the year-ago quarter. Meanwhile, revenue is projected at about $42.07 billion, representing an 8% year-over-year increase.

Is Alibaba Stock a Buy Now?

Wall Street remains constructive on the stock. Alibaba carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on eight Buy ratings and one Hold over the past three months. The average BABA price target stands at $197.86, suggesting roughly 45.18% upside from current levels.

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