Skyrocketing Five Times? European Flight Tickets Sold Out

When explosions sounded at the U.S. military base in East Bahrain’s capital, tourist blogger Sun Changjian was visiting Bahrain Fort, 12 kilometers away. This island nation near the western coast of the Persian Gulf, over a thousand kilometers from Israel and Iran, was once considered a safe haven by travelers. On his way from Turkey to Saudi Arabia for filming, he deliberately chose to transfer in Bahrain, visiting historic sites, but unexpectedly found himself stranded near the conflict zone.

This was Sun Changjian’s third trip to the Middle East. In recent years, rising investment interest and dense air travel networks have made Middle Eastern countries outside conflict zones popular destinations that can be visited at any time.

As Sun and his wife hurried back to the airport, Bahrain’s airspace had already been closed, and rebooking flights was impossible. They were temporarily accommodated at a hotel arranged by the airline, less than 5 kilometers from the U.S. military base. From the afternoon of February 28 to the early morning of March 1, continuous explosions and air raid sirens kept their nerves on edge: they had to leave as soon as possible.

“The consulate is trying to coordinate; the airline’s phone lines are busy, and the hotel is helping tourists find land transportation out,” Sun didn’t know that as the conflict escalated, many Middle Eastern countries announced closures of their airspace. By March 4, over 23,000 flights had been canceled worldwide. The busiest air corridor connecting Eurasia suddenly ground to a halt, blocking his way home and turning many “last-minute” travelers’ plans into huge uncertainties.

On March 4, several cruise ships were stranded at Dubai port in the UAE. Photo / Visual China

8 days of travel, 7 days spent scrambling for tickets

On the afternoon of February 28, local time, the MSC Mediterranean cruise ship “Goddess” suddenly announced it would cease operations and remain docked at Dubai’s Rashid Port. Mao Qianxun, 26, the tour leader from Ningbo, immediately shared the news with his company’s manager in China. He had been aware of the tense situation in the Middle East before departure, but never expected the war to break out so suddenly.

Earlier that morning, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. Iran responded with attacks on U.S. military facilities in the Gulf, affecting some Middle Eastern countries including the UAE. The situation in the Middle East suddenly became tense. The cruise carried over 5,000 tourists.

Faint explosions, aircraft roaring overhead, and air raid sirens on mobile phones marked the first night aboard the ship. Wang Yandeng told China News Weekly that it was the first time she was so close to war. She checked the map on her phone, noting that the explosion sites mentioned in the news were just over 100 kilometers from the cruise.

“There’s no denying it’s tense,” Wang said. She didn’t sleep well, waking up first thing to check the news. The night before, a drone fragment had hit the sail-shaped hotel in Dubai, and missile debris had damaged the luxurious Fairmont Palm Jumeirah hotel, setting fire at the entrance. These were all sites on their original itinerary. The most pressing concern among passengers was no longer sightseeing but “when can we go home.”

Ningbo, nine time zones away, received news of the cruise’s suspension late at night on the 28th. Li Da, vice president of Flying Travel, was added to an emergency response group. Early on March 1, the company activated its highest-level emergency plan, with the chairman as leader, and Li Da and others managing communication, routes, and logistics. The tour leader Mao Qianxun was on the front line comforting tourists and providing updates.

“Messages kept coming in about missile alerts. No one can predict how the war will unfold. The company’s decision is to return as soon as possible,” Li Da explained. The original 8-day, 7-night itinerary planned for the group of 32 to return on March 7. While keeping the original flight as a backup, they began searching for earlier return tickets.

However, within 12 hours of the conflict erupting, to avoid potential missile attacks, air traffic control departments in Iran, Iraq, Israel, and others issued emergency notices, closing or restricting their airspace. Soon after, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman also temporarily or partially closed their airspace.

Li Da and his team could only contact relevant authorities and wait for flights to resume. On the morning of March 3, the travel agency received notice from Emirates’ domestic office that a direct Dubai-Hangzhou flight would resume on the 6th. After successful payment, they were suddenly informed the flight was canceled at midnight on the 5th.

The team then mobilized all resources to find tickets. By the morning of March 5, they finally secured 14 tickets for direct Dubai-Shanghai flights (EK304). Li Da recalled that they planned to send these 14 people to the airport for immediate return, while the remaining 18, including the tour leader Mao Qianxun, waited for subsequent flights.

That evening, the agency managed to book new direct Dubai-Beijing flights for the 18 travelers. But the new problem was that these flights departed earlier, and as the team leader, Mao Qianxun was required to leave last per regulations. The group mainly consisted of seniors over 60, and in case of emergencies, they needed the leader present.

“The ideal plan was for everyone to fly back together,” Li Da said. The ticket scramble was full of twists. They kept the 14 tickets to Hangzhou while trying to secure seats for Beijing. At midnight on the 6th, they booked 7 seats, and at 2 a.m., another 7. But when paying, the transaction was blocked because the local airline’s office had closed. The travel agency urgently contacted the Emirates office in Hangzhou, asking them to go to Xiaoshan Airport overnight to complete payment at the counter. By 3 a.m. Beijing time on the 6th, all tickets were finally confirmed.

Meanwhile, at least 200 Chinese tourists on the “Goddess” were gradually evacuated via chartered flights and self-funded options. Wang Yan’s other group of 30 people also rescheduled their flight from Dubai to Shanghai on March 8 through the agency.

MSC staff told China News Weekly that by the 6th, they had arranged over 1,500 passengers to leave Dubai via 7 chartered or cooperative flights, as well as some government-coordinated flights.

Intercontinental direct flights will likely increase in price

Xue Bin and his family were notified of the flight cancellation while en route to the airport. February 28 was their last day in Dubai after the Spring Festival trip. When they arrived at the airport, they saw long lines of people waiting to change or cancel flights. Unable to reach the airline by phone, they decided to return to the city to find a hotel. Shortly after they left, Dubai International Airport was attacked, injuring four staff members.

“Loss of ground security directly triggered the airline’s circuit breaker,” said Yu Zhanfu, a senior civil aviation management consultant. Infrastructure damage shattered the industry’s expectation that “business hubs are highly resilient.” Dubai, not directly involved, was affected during Iran’s counterattack, which is rare in the global civil aviation scene.

Subsequently, the three major Middle Eastern airlines (ME3) announced widespread or full suspensions. Emirates halted all flights in and out of Dubai; Etihad suspended all departures and arrivals in Abu Dhabi; Qatar Airways also paused operations due to Qatar airspace closure.

The shutdown of Middle Eastern hubs acted like the first domino falling, causing flight cancellations, rerouting, and capacity shortages that quickly spread across the global airline network. According to FlightAware and Cirium data, within 72 hours of the outbreak, over 6,000 flights were canceled worldwide. The UAE Civil Aviation Authority reported that on the first day of conflict, their airports and airlines handled about 20,200 affected passengers.

Xue daily refreshed flight info. On March 4, the first direct flight back to Guangzhou resumed, giving hope, but tickets were scarce and economy fares exceeded 10,000 yuan. Later, prices for direct flights generally rose, forcing him to consider transfers. On the afternoon of the 4th, his family successfully rebooked a flight to Kuala Lumpur for the next day, costing over 4,000 yuan per person. On departure day, he met fellow travelers at Dubai Airport, who told him their last-minute tickets cost two to three times his price.

In the face of such upheaval, travelers showed strong risk-avoidance behavior. Yu Zhanfu said that even with high prices, passengers are willing to pay for certainty and safety. Besides market supply and demand, the closure of Middle Eastern airspace caused many international flights to reroute, significantly increasing flight distances and times, which directly raised operating costs and ticket prices.

Yu estimated that for a fully loaded Boeing 777-300ER or Airbus A350, each additional hour of flight consumes 3 to 4.5 tons of jet fuel, with extra fuel and crew costs reaching $6,000–$14,000 per intercontinental flight. Meanwhile, crude oil prices spiked due to geopolitical panic. Airlines’ costs are rising due to high fuel prices, expensive insurance, and detours, and he predicts surcharges for direct flights are imminent.

Prices for direct flights between China and Europe have already surged. Post-Chinese New Year, traditionally a low season for Europe routes, the cancellation of many Middle Eastern transits has caused a surge in demand for direct flights, especially for business travelers and students returning home. In early March, economy class tickets from Shanghai to Paris soared from around 5,000 yuan to over 30,000 yuan—an increase of five times, with some direct flights selling out immediately.

Meanwhile, the suspension of Middle Eastern hubs has caused a large spillover of passenger flow, occupying global resources. Yu noted that on March 2 alone, there were 4,630 delayed flights in Asia; Kuala Lumpur International Airport saw delays increase by 121%, and Singapore Changi Airport by 293%.

“Over the past 30 years, the aviation industry has pursued economies of scale, pushing operational efficiency to the extreme. But in today’s highly fragmented geopolitical landscape, lack of redundancy makes this extreme efficiency fragile,” Yu said. Long-term, global airline network planning must shift from “efficiency first” to “resilience first.” For ordinary travelers, under the combined pressure of market demand and operational costs, intercontinental direct flight prices are likely to rise in the near future.

Middle Eastern tourism faces a standstill

On the evening of March 2, Sun Changjian and his wife finally contacted a car heading to Oman. As the rearview mirror showed Bahrain receding into the distance, they finally relaxed and began planning their return route. Due to limited flight options at nearby airports, they had to fly from Oman to Jeddah, then transfer to Istanbul, and finally reach Guangzhou. This originally could have been a direct flight, but now it stretched to four days.

As an experienced travel blogger with nine years of experience, Sun knew that under normal circumstances, most Middle Eastern countries are not as dangerous as rumors suggest. But the sudden, complete cancellation of flights cut off all options, leaving him in agony. He decided not to return to the Middle East in the short term, and future plans depended on when the flight network could truly and stably recover.

“We have to temporarily give up the Middle Eastern market,” a founder of a domestic outbound travel company told China News Weekly. The company had begun exploring the Middle East ten years ago, initially leveraging Dubai’s transit hub to design “Dubai day trips” for European travelers. As the Middle Eastern route network grew denser, they developed more multi-day desert tours. After the pandemic, with the revival of long-haul outbound travel, they increased investments in the region, even opening an office in Dubai. Middle Eastern business accounted for about one-tenth of their total revenue.

To attract Chinese tourists, Middle Eastern countries have been actively promoting. The UAE has advanced the “Welcome China” strategy, optimizing Chinese signage and mobile payments; Qatar has expanded direct flights to China and introduced simplified visas and other “all-in-one” measures.

According to Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism, in 2025, Dubai hosted 19.59 million overnight visitors, a new high for three consecutive years; tourism’s contribution to Dubai’s GDP rose sharply from 6% in 2021 to 15%.

Faced with the sudden halt of Middle Eastern tourism, the founder of the outbound travel company said that losses from cancellations and product removals amounted to hundreds of thousands of yuan. But he was more worried about the impact on their African business. He admitted that their newly developed African group tours heavily rely on Middle Eastern transit flights.

“Predicting the impact on the African market is still too early,” said Jia Jianqiang, founder and CEO of a custom travel company specializing in six-person groups. He noted that Africa’s peak travel season is in summer, leaving about half a year for buffer. Based on current inquiries, their African business has not yet been affected.

Flights are now the most critical variable in the outbound travel industry. Civil Aviation Resources Platform data shows that in 2024, China’s three major airlines increased capacity to the Middle East significantly compared to 2019, with China Eastern’s capacity growing over six times, adding 46 routes—both the largest among Chinese carriers.

“Where the capacity goes is the biggest headache for airlines,” Yu said. Previously, US routes cooled, and the Middle East absorbed much of the capacity. Recently, the Japanese market has also struggled to recover. Europe remains a potential destination, but flights to Frankfurt, Munich, Paris, and other major cities face stiff competition from established European carriers like Lufthansa and Air France.

Jia Jianqiang said that geopolitical uncertainties have made industry players adapt to market changes. In recent years, markets from Southeast Asia to Japan have experienced sharp declines and quick rebounds within months. After the Iran conflict, high-net-worth travelers planning to go to the Middle East now prefer long-distance, long-cycle trips, possibly shifting demand toward North America, Europe, South America, or even Antarctica.

(At the respondent’s request, Wang Yan is a pseudonym)

Published in China News Weekly, Issue 1227, March 16, 2026

Magazine Title: Is the Booming Middle Eastern Tourism About to Stop?

Reporter: Li Mingzi

Editor: Min Jie