International Energy Agency Releases Largest Oil Reserves in History, Iran Warns: Oil Prices Could Surge to $200 per Barrel

【Text/Observer Network Wang Yi】On March 11th, local time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the largest-ever release of reserves, releasing 400 million barrels of oil in an attempt to calm the energy market turbulence caused by the Middle East conflict provoked by the US and Israel.

However, the relief provided by the emergency oil reserve release is only temporary, and there are no signs of stopping the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran. On the 11th, the Iranian military warned the US, saying, “Prepare for oil prices to reach $200 per barrel, because oil prices depend on regional security, and it is you who have undermined that security.”

This conflict, triggered by joint airstrikes by the US and Israel, has lasted nearly two weeks, spreading to Lebanon and causing about 2,000 deaths. As the conflict escalates, the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely closed, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets, with about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply relying on its transit.

Affected by market panic over oil supply disruptions, Brent crude oil prices have risen 26% since the US and Israel’s attacks, reaching a high of $119 per barrel on the 9th before retreating from the peak. On the 12th, Brent prices surged nearly 10% again, returning to the $100 mark.

To address the soaring oil prices, the IEA issued a statement on the 11th, announcing that its 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. The Financial Times reported that this is the largest strategic oil reserve release in the agency’s history, far exceeding the 182 million barrels released in two phases after the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, “The challenges currently facing the oil market are unprecedented in scale, so I am very pleased that IEA member countries have taken this historic collective emergency action.” After the announcement, Brent crude oil rose 3%, to $90.6 per barrel.

On March 11th, local time, IEA Director Fatih Birol announced in Paris that 400 million barrels of oil reserves would be released. Video screenshot.

Member countries responded quickly to the release plan. US Energy Secretary Chris Wray said that Trump had authorized the release of 172 million barrels of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve starting next week.

Germany’s Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, Robert Habeck, announced on the 11th that 19.51 million barrels of strategic oil reserves would be released. The Dutch government also announced that, in response to the IEA’s arrangement, about 5.36 million barrels of strategic reserves would be released, accounting for about 20% of the country’s strategic oil reserves, to curb international oil prices. The energy departments of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania issued a joint statement on the same day, saying the three countries are ready to utilize their oil reserves.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan would start releasing its strategic reserves as early as next Monday, releasing oil equivalent to 15 days of consumption from private sector inventories and an additional 30 days’ worth from government reserves.

French President Emmanuel Macron, after hosting a G7 video conference, stated that the 400 million barrels released by the IEA is roughly equivalent to 20 days of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, with the G7 accounting for 70% of that.

According to the IEA’s arrangement, member countries hold about 1.2 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves and 600 million barrels of mandatory commercial stocks, roughly equivalent to 124 days of supply in the Gulf region, which can be used in emergencies. Since the agency’s establishment in the 1970s, this mechanism has only been activated five times.

However, analysts point out that the speed at which countries release reserves varies, and even if fully implemented, the scale is only a small part of the transportation volume through the Strait of Hormuz.

Birol also said, “It is clear that restoring normal flow of oil and natural gas is the most important step, which is to restart transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Market research firm Kantar Macro climate and commodity economist Hamad Hussain said that the record-scale emergency oil reserve release might somewhat ease the supply gap from the Middle East, but if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, this relief will only be temporary.

Meanwhile, the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran show no signs of stopping, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still seems unlikely in the short term.

Reuters reported on the 11th that the Pentagon said the US has launched its most intense airstrikes since the start of the conflict, and Iran also launched attacks on Israel and multiple targets across the Middle East.

Iranian military spokesperson Ibrahim Zolghadri warned the US that, “If regional security is compromised, international oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel. Prepare for $200 per barrel, because oil prices depend on regional security, and it is you who have destroyed that security.”

Since the conflict erupted, 14 merchant ships have been attacked. A Thai cargo ship was hit and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz on the 11th, forcing the crew to evacuate, with three missing, believed trapped in the engine room. A Japanese-flagged container ship and a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier were also reportedly attacked and damaged by projectiles.

Sources say Iran has deployed about 12 mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The G7 held a meeting on the 11th and agreed to explore escort options for commercial ships to ensure safe passage in the Gulf region. However, French media reported that President Macron, who hosted the meeting, could not confirm whether Iran had laid mines in the strait.

Despite the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump claimed on the 11th that the US military had destroyed 58 Iranian naval vessels and expressed confidence that oil prices would eventually fall, saying, “Iran is basically at the end of the line.”

Regarding the strait, Trump stated that the US would “pay very close attention to this region,” adding, “The strait is in good shape; we have destroyed all their ships. They still have some missiles, but not many.”

However, Reuters cited US intelligence assessments indicating that the Iranian regime remains stable and does not face an imminent collapse. Israeli officials also admitted in closed-door discussions that they are unsure whether the Iranian government will fall, and despite ongoing bombings, there are no signs of large-scale protests inside Iran.

Instead, many Iranians took to the streets to hold funerals for senior commanders killed in airstrikes. Crowds carried coffins, waved flags, and displayed portraits of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei and his son, current Supreme Leader Moojtaaba Khamenei, to show support.

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.