Strait of Hormuz Emergency: Cargo Ship Attacked! Goldman Sachs Major Warning!

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense.

According to the latest news, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office announced on the 12th that a cargo ship was hit by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, causing the vessel to catch fire. U.S. President Trump stated on March 11 that the U.S. will focus on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Currently, the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy markets. Goldman Sachs warned in its latest report that, due to an extended expectation of flow disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge to $93 per barrel in an extreme scenario, potentially surpassing the 2008 record high.

A cargo ship was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz

On March 12, Xinhua News Agency reported that the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office said a cargo ship was hit by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, and the vessel caught fire.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office issued a statement saying the incident occurred 35 nautical miles north of Al Arish in the UAE. All crew members are safe, and investigations are ongoing.

On March 11, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported that a cargo ship was hit by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, causing the vessel to catch fire. The incident happened 11 nautical miles north of Oman.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil transportation, as well as large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. Since the start of military actions by the U.S. and Israel, shipping through the strait has nearly halted, with hundreds of ships stranded at anchor, and global oil prices have surged to their highest levels since 2022.

According to CCTV News, Trump stated on March 11 that the U.S. is in a “favorable position” in the war against Iran and will focus on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also said that the U.S. knows where Iran’s “secret organizations” are and that they are being closely monitored. Earlier this week, in an interview about the Strait of Hormuz, Trump mentioned he is “considering occupying it.”

Notably, Trump has recently stated multiple times that the U.S. is prepared to provide naval escort when necessary to restore regular shipping through this critical waterway.

However, according to sources familiar with the matter, since the conflict with Iran began, the U.S. Navy has almost daily refused shipping industry’s requests for military escort in the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks.

Three shipping industry sources, who wished to remain anonymous, said that the U.S. Navy has been conducting daily briefings with industry colleagues in shipping and oil sectors, and during these briefings, they stated that they cannot currently provide escort. They added that the Navy’s assessment in Tuesday’s briefing remains unchanged—that escorting might only be possible if the attack risk decreases.

Goldman Sachs issues a sudden warning

The security challenges facing the Strait of Hormuz continue to intensify.

Maritime security experts and analysts point out that even forming an international coalition to ensure the strait’s safety will face significant challenges, as Iran has the capability to lay mines and deploy inexpensive attack drones. Adel Bakawan, director of the Middle East and North Africa Research Institute, said, “Whether it’s France, the U.S., an international coalition, or any other force, they are powerless to ensure the safety of the Strait of Hormuz.”

As a result, international oil prices continue to strengthen. On March 12, during the Asian trading session, Brent crude futures briefly surpassed $100 per barrel. As of 15:20 Beijing time, WTI crude futures rose 4.58% to $91.23 per barrel; Brent crude futures increased 4.81% to $96.41 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs significantly raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecast in its latest report, citing that the duration of flow disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be longer than previously assumed. This adjustment implies that if the Middle East situation worsens further, oil prices could break the 2008 record high.

Analysts Daan Struyven and others at Goldman Sachs raised their fourth-quarter Brent crude forecast from $66 to $71 per barrel, and WTI from $62 to $67 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that if flow in the Strait remains low into late March, oil prices will trend upward “until the market is confident that a long-term disruption is unlikely.” The firm also warned that if flow remains constrained throughout March, daily oil prices could surpass the 2008 peak levels.

The core basis for this forecast revision is a reassessment of the duration of flow interruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs adjusted its baseline assumption from a 10% flow reduction lasting 10 days to a 21-day period, followed by a gradual recovery over 30 days.

The report outlined two price scenarios under different stress levels: in a 30-day disruption, the fourth-quarter average Brent price is expected to be $76 per barrel and WTI $72; if the disruption extends to 60 days, Brent could rise to $93 and WTI to $89 per barrel.

Although Goldman Sachs acknowledges that oil prices face risks on both sides, its report states that the risk balance “leans upward.” Under the current uncertain flow conditions, market expectations about the duration of the disruption will be a key factor in short-term price movements. Goldman Sachs’s statement suggests that investors should prepare for higher energy prices.