Recently, I was chatting with some friends in the industry and noticed an interesting phenomenon! During a bull market, everyone is a seasoned trader, top analyst, or a veteran who has survived multiple cycles. When the bear market hits, everyone becomes unsure, says they’ve already cleared their positions, or claims to be just a small retail investor. So I now have a very simple way to judge: when all the big shots in your social circle start calling themselves small retail investors, there's no doubt—it's a bear market.