Grab Forecasts $4.04B–$4.1B Revenue, Shares Drop Over 7%

Khac Phu Nguyen

Fri, February 13, 2026 at 4:25 AM GMT+9 2 min read

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GRAB

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Grab Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRAB) is entering the year with a more tempered outlook, signaling that Southeast Asia’s consumer environment may not be as supportive as investors had hoped. The company projected full-year revenue of $4.04 billion to $4.1 billion, below the roughly $4.13 billion analysts were modeling, while fourth-quarter revenue also came in under expectations. Even so, Grab delivered its first annual net profit in 2025, defying forecasts for a loss and marking a notable shift after years of prioritizing expansion over earnings. The market reaction was swift, with shares falling more than 7% in late U.S. trading, extending a slide of roughly 35% from last September’s peak as investors reassess the pace of recovery.

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Management appears to be pivoting from aggressive land-grab tactics toward steadier execution. After years of heavy spending to build scale, Grab is tightening expansion and leaning into products such as shared rides and delivery offerings to maintain engagement in what it described as a sluggish economy. The company introduced guidance through 2028, targeting a 20% compounded annual revenue growth rate, and announced a new share repurchase plan of up to $500 million, its second such program. Citigroup analyst Alicia Yap suggested that, consistent with prior years, the initial full-year guidance could prove conservative, leaving room for potential upside if demand trends stabilize.

Strategically, competition and diversification remain central to the story. Grab continues to face pressure from GoTo Group, and talks around a potential combination have been delayed by regulatory scrutiny and valuation differences, with negotiations recently snagging over Telkomsel’s roughly 2% stake in GoTo. At the same time, management is positioning financial services as what could become its fastest-growing pillar. Chief Financial Officer Peter Oey said the company aims to more than double its lending portfolio to over $2 billion by year-end, while expanding across investing, lending and insurance. Bloomberg Intelligence indicated Grab may increasingly function as a proxy for Southeast Asia, pointing to its 50%60% market share in mobility and deliveries, about $20 million in gross merchandise value, and stakes in GXS Bank, GX Bank and Super Bank Indonesia as foundations that could support a third profit engine over time.

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