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Tensions escalate in Iran, Asian markets come under pressure: Oil prices surge through risk appetite levels as funds flow into safe-haven assets

February 20, 2026

The smoke of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East once again spreads across global financial markets. As tensions between the US and Iran suddenly escalate, risk assets are quickly strained. As of today, emerging Asian stock markets and currencies generally decline under pressure, while oil prices soar to a six-month high, prompting investors to shift into safe-haven assets like gold.

"Deadline" Sparks Powder Keg

Market volatility is driven by a major signal from Washington. Multiple sources confirm that U.S. President Trump is weighing a "limited" initial military strike against Iran as a pressure tactic to force Tehran to accept the new nuclear agreement terms proposed by the United States. Insiders reveal that if authorized, the operation could be launched within days.

Trump has also publicly drawn a "red line" for diplomatic resolution, stating Iran has only "10 to 15 days" to reach an agreement, or face "serious consequences." Meanwhile, U.S. military deployments in the Middle East have significantly increased, including the positioning of aircraft carrier strike groups and the gathering of multiple warships. This show of force, combined with diplomatic warnings, instantly ignites market fears of a military conflict erupting.

Oil Market Shakes, Safe Assets Reignited

The Strait of Hormuz— the "throat" of global energy supply— once again becomes a focal point. As the passage for nearly one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil, any rumors of blockage directly impact prices.

Data shows that by the close on February 19, NYMEX crude oil futures rose about 2.5%, surpassing $66.6 per barrel; Brent crude futures also increased approximately 2.5%, breaking through $71.5, reaching the highest levels since late July last year. Analysts note that beyond the direct risk of military conflict, markets are also worried that worsening tensions could lead Iran to take action to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would cut off about 13 million barrels of daily oil transportation, dealing a fatal blow to global energy supplies.

Meanwhile, traditional safe-haven assets are regaining favor amid the "roaring" oil market. International spot gold prices temporarily broke through the $5,000/oz mark during trading and are now consolidating around this key psychological level. Silver and other precious metals also rose. Capital flows clearly indicate that until geopolitical fog clears, investors prefer to hold hard assets that can withstand risks.

Asian Markets Suffer "Double Hit": Stocks and Currencies Fall Together

As a major energy importer region, emerging Asian markets are among the first to be affected by this geopolitical shock.

In equities, yesterday’s Asia-Pacific markets were generally cautious or even pessimistic. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index experienced a sharp pullback from high levels, falling over 1%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also declined about 0.6%; Australian stocks fell due to energy sector weakness. Notably, South Korea and Singapore stock markets hit record highs driven by inflows into specific sectors, indicating internal market divergence and repositioning.

The currency markets are even more subdued. Since most major Asian economies are net oil importers, sustained high oil prices mean rising import bills, worsening trade conditions, and direct depreciation pressure on their currencies.

The Philippine Peso led declines, falling 0.3% yesterday to its lowest in over a week. Although the Bank of the Philippines had cut interest rates earlier, it was seen as a reluctant move to address economic weakness. CIBC Capital Markets analysts pointed out that the year-to-date rise in Brent crude prices has significantly dampened bullish prospects for Asian currencies, especially for energy-dependent countries like Thailand, India, South Korea, and the Philippines, whose currencies are under heavy depreciation pressure. The Singapore dollar and Thai baht also declined this week.

Macroeconomic Clouds Worsen Market Concerns

Beyond the immediate fire in the Middle East, macroeconomic headwinds are also increasing market fragility. The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes show ongoing disagreements over the future interest rate path, with some discussions mentioning the possibility of "rate hikes." This somewhat hawkish signal, combined with U.S. initial jobless claims indicating a stabilizing labor market, supports the dollar and narrows market expectations for rate cuts. Under the combined pressure of "geopolitical risks + high oil prices + potentially sustained high interest rates," capital flows and asset performance in emerging markets are expected to face even greater challenges.

Overall, as the U.S.-Iran game enters the "last seconds," the global financial markets' suspense will likely continue. The next moves in oil prices and whether Asian currencies can stabilize will depend on whether clouds can clear over the Persian Gulf.
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Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and market data, for analysis purposes only, and does not constitute any financial or investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions and be aware of risks.