Warrior Met Coal Gets Wall Street Boost: UBS Shifts to Buy Amid Institutional Strength

On January 29, 2026, UBS made a significant move by revising its investment stance on Warrior Met Coal from neutral to bullish, signaling renewed confidence in the coal producer’s prospects. This rating improvement comes at a time when institutional investors are actively reshaping their positions in the company, painting a picture of growing market conviction around the stock’s near-term trajectory.

The Valuation Question: What Are Analysts Saying?

As of mid-January 2026, the consensus price target among Wall Street analysts pegged Warrior Met Coal at $88.89 per share, suggesting a modest 3.54% pullback from the stock’s then-current price of $92.15. However, this seemingly bearish forecast masks the wide range of opinion in the analyst community, with targets stretching from as low as $72.72 to as high as $105.00 per share.

The divergence reflects uncertainty, but the revenue projections paint a brighter picture. Warrior Met Coal is anticipated to generate $2.192 billion in annual revenue—a substantial 79.04% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share are projected at 0.82, demonstrating a path toward improved profitability despite the modest near-term price target discount.

Reading the Institutional Tea Leaves

What’s more telling than analyst targets is what the smart money is actually doing. Warrior Met Coal currently has 549 funds and institutions holding shares, representing a slight quarterly decline of 28 positions (4.85%). However, average portfolio weightings tell a different story: institutions are raising their allocation to Warrior Met Coal on average to 0.31% of their portfolios—a 2.30% increase in relative weighting.

Total institutional shareholdings declined marginally by 3.34% to 66.672 million shares over the past three months, but this decline was concentrated among smaller holders. The put-to-call ratio of 0.11 suggests a decidedly optimistic market posture, with call buyers outnumbering put buyers by nearly 9-to-1.

The Heavyweight Moves: Who’s Increasing Their Bets?

The real action lies in how major institutional investors are repositioning. T Rowe Associates increased its Warrior Met Coal position dramatically, raising its stake from 1.931 million shares to 2.711 million shares—a 28.79% jump. More impressively, the firm elevated its portfolio weighting in Warrior Met Coal by 84.16% over the quarter, signaling genuine conviction.

Similarly, T. Rowe Price Investment Management boosted its holdings to 2.670 million shares from 2.543 million shares (a 4.74% increase), while raising its relative portfolio allocation by 41.11%. Even funds with smaller positions are showing commitment: American Century Companies, despite trimming its absolute share count by 9.41%, increased its portfolio weighting by 18.86%—suggesting a deliberate recalibration rather than retreat.

The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF holds 2.470 million shares but maintained its position without changes last quarter. Dalal Street maintained its 1.8 million share position while raising its allocation by 11.97%.

What This Means for Warrior Met Coal

The combination of UBS’s upgraded rating, rising institutional allocation weights, and the bullish options sentiment creates a narrative of rekindling interest in Warrior Met Coal. While near-term price targets suggest limited upside, the fundamental revenue growth story and institutional repositioning indicate that serious investors see longer-term opportunity in the company’s transition and operational improvements.