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 announced on February 5th an increase in margin requirements for key gold and silver futures contracts, with new margins rising to 9% for gold and 18% for silver. The new rules will take effect after the market closes on February 6th. Margin increases directly raise trading costs for precious metals, leading to a rapid outflow of speculative funds from the market. By the end of trading, the precious metals market began to collapse rapidly: silver fell 20%, breaking an important level of $71 per ounce, significantly retreating from its previous high; gold also dropped more than 4%, to $4,766.8 per ounce, once again breaking the $4,800 level. Funds that previously actively bought during price dips in metals are now experiencing a second wave of deep "harvesting," which intensified the decline and severely undermined confidence in safe-haven assets.
Panic in global financial markets is highly contagious: the collapse of the precious metals market quickly spread to the crypto market, causing a massive drop in major cryptocurrencies and a significant increase in sales. As an indicator of market sentiment, Bitcoin’s price continues to decline and is approaching the key psychological level of $60,000. This level has become the focus of short-term battles between bulls and bears, and a break below could trigger a new downward cycle. Ethereum is weaker and follows the market, with its price continuing to fall and soon testing the important support at $1,500. Short-term rebound potential is absent. Overall, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has been shrinking recently, liquidity often gets liquidated when using leverage, the fear and greed index remains at low levels, and investor sentiment remains cautious.
The overall decline in global markets is caused by not just one factor but a combination of several negative influences. The main reason is the change in expectations regarding the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. After the appointment of hawk Kevin Vosh as Fed Chair, expectations for further "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" have increased, intensifying expectations of liquidity tightening in the global dollar system. Precious metals and high-risk cryptocurrencies, which are assets with zero yield, have been the primary victims. Additionally, the increase in margin requirements at CME worsened liquidity issues, leading to capital outflows from markets. Coupled with the correction in the valuation of tech stocks on the US market and the flight of institutional investors from risky assets, a vicious cycle of "decline — stop-loss — further decline" is forming, ultimately leading to a collective correction of global risk assets.
Regarding the future development of the crypto market, attention is focused on three key signals that are crucial for assessing the possibility of market stabilization: first — the pace of implementing Fed policies, especially after Vosh’s appointment, as well as changes in rate expectations and balance sheet reduction, which directly impact global liquidity; second — the movement of institutional funds, primarily the inflow and outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs and changes in the positions of major players, as these factors directly influence buying and selling levels; third — on-chain data changes, such as large transfers, net inflows to exchanges, and changes in borrowed positions, as these indicators provide clear insights into the behavior of large players and retail investors.
I will continue to closely monitor these key signals and keep you informed about market strategies and dynamics to help identify important turning points. Also, remember that amid heightened volatility in global markets and increased interconnectedness between the crypto market, US stock market, and precious metals market, uncertainty remains high. Trading requires strict position control, reducing leverage, and properly setting stop-losses. Pay special attention to the support levels at $60,000 for Bitcoin and $1,500 for Ethereum — do not blindly buy at these levels until they are confirmed; it’s better to wait for clear signs of market stabilization. First and foremost — stay resilient, and in volatile conditions, look for real opportunities for strategic entry.
There are always opportunities in the market; the key is to stay patient and not lose capital. Follow the channel “Because it speaks about crypto” to receive the latest news and respond promptly to key trading situations!