The crypto market finds it hard to stand alone—how US stock earnings reports are reshaping BTC trends

Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating around $69,000, with many traders focusing on technical support levels, but often overlooking deeper macro forces. The recent intense earnings season of the seven major U.S. tech giants is profoundly influencing the direction of the crypto market. The correlation between the Nasdaq index and crypto assets has risen to 0.8, which means that Bitcoin has essentially evolved into a “high-leverage shadow” of U.S. tech stocks—trying to stand alone is almost impossible.

Tech Stock Earnings Trigger Chain Reactions

The market expects that leading companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta will perform poorly this quarter. Tesla’s Q4 EPS is expected to decline by nearly 40%, with delivery volumes decreasing year-over-year, and Microsoft’s AI monetization capabilities are also facing market skepticism. If these companies “miss the mark,” profit-taking will quickly drain liquidity from the market. In a state of deep panic, the crypto market cannot remain unaffected by this wave of sell-offs.

The Logic Behind the Surge in Nasdaq Correlation

This is no coincidence. Over the past year, institutional funds have massively flowed into the U.S. tech sector and Bitcoin spot ETFs, leading to a convergence in investor structures across both markets, with risk appetite highly correlated. When tech stocks face earnings pressure, the same pool of capital reduces positions simultaneously, and the crypto market often becomes the first asset class to be sold off. The jump in correlation between Nasdaq and BTC from 0.3 to 0.8 is a true reflection of this capital linkage.

Can the AI Narrative Break the Deadlock? The Crypto Market’s Dilemma

Currently, the crypto market faces two possible futures. If the AI narrative continues to gain momentum and tech earnings surpass expectations, the upward momentum of the broader market will drive BTC to new highs. But if the capital expenditure bubble bursts and tech companies fail to meet profit expectations, the market will fall into an even deeper liquidity crisis.

Until the earnings season concludes, cautious handling remains the wisest strategy. The crypto market can no longer stand alone; its fate has long been tied to the U.S. tech sector. The outcome of this earnings season will directly determine Bitcoin’s short-term rise or fall—whether it’s a continuation of the AI narrative’s salvation or the final wave of profit-taking. The market will soon provide the answer.