Bank of China Futures: Synthetic rubber short-term supported by reduced supply due to decreased operations

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-04T01:49:46+00:00

Rubber prices are neutral to slightly strong amid domestic suspension of tapping and reduced overseas production, with domestic inventories slightly increasing. The processing profit in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry has turned negative, leading to reduced operating rates, but there is potential for raw material prices to rise. In the medium term, attention should be paid to how changes in raw materials impact industry profits.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-04 01:49:46

Abstract generation in progress

From a fundamental perspective, domestic rubber production in China has halted, while in northern Thailand, production is gradually decreasing. In southern Thailand, the tapping season for 2025~2026 remains in peak production period, leading to neutral to slightly strong raw material prices. As of February 1st, after a brief one-week inventory reduction in the domestic trade segment, stocks continued to accumulate (according to Longzhong Information, the total inventory of bonded and general trade rubber in Qingdao is 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23% compared to the previous period. Bonded zone inventory is 97,600 tons, up 3.34%; general trade inventory is 494,100 tons, up 0.82%).

After the processing profit of the styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) industry turned negative, operating rates have decreased over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, raw material prices are expected to rise due to improved processing profitability, which may create room for increased domestic production, potentially leading to industry profit adjustments. In the short term, BR is supported by reduced supply due to lower operating rates; medium-term focus should be on changes in raw material prices. This view is for reference only. (Bank of China Futures)

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