Assessment of the extent of the rebound continuation and views on gold.

Daily review covers too many things, and by the time I finish, it’s already very late, so I can only give a brief overview. The current state of CPO itself was expected to be a sign that Xinyisheng needs to do some repair, to restore the strength of the ChiNext Index. Among the four major indices, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is the weakest, but the ChiNext Index is performing the strongest. If it can be repaired, there is still room for optimism; if the ChiNext continues to break down, then the outlook should be more cautious. Today, the market showed a volume-reduction rally with widespread gains. Most people believe the rebound can’t continue because the trading volume hasn’t increased. The key to whether the recovery can sustain tomorrow, in this intra-day volume game, is whether it can attract incremental outside capital. In other words, the initial recovery phase with low volume isn’t the main problem; the real issue is the inability to sustain volume increases to generate new profit opportunities. So, is there a possibility that once volume increases, it will reach a high point of recovery? Or, if the index maintains its shape and the ChiNext Index breaks down, it would mean that market trading difficulty will continue to increase. Objectively, over the past three trading days, a white horse stock has been killed each day; during the worst period in 2024, it was over ten consecutive days of killing one white horse each day. Whether it’s Cambrian or Huatuo Century, this essentially reflects the market’s hypersensitivity and fragile sentiment, which is a point that must be noted.

Returning to the initial chart and text, from the perspective of the CPO sector analysis, Xinyisheng, as the absolute core of two attempts to attack the sector, why is it not performing as well as the previously relatively lagging Tianfutong? Is there a signal here? The so-called relative front-row stocks lack new incremental funds, and institutions are trying to reallocate to raise the overall sector height. The so-called laggards like Tianfutong, Guangku, and Liante all show very comfortable patterns and states. Even Roboteck has hit a new high, meaning the laggards are catching up before the leaders. The degree of chasing the highs and incremental funds for the front-row stocks are insufficient. Looking at the states of Shenghong Technology and Cambrian, they are actually in a very poor state. Institutions are shifting from the so-called front-row stocks to the so-called laggards, essentially trying to raise the average height of the sector.

Another point is mainly about the commercial aviation sector; I won’t discuss AI tonight. Because the degree of repair in commercial aviation directly anchors on the market’s overall recovery. Tomorrow, with expected negative feedback and liquidity fully released, will there be a climax of recovery intra-day? If so, the buying points outside the market would be delayed, meaning a secondary confirmation of the buy point. The most critical indicator for finding a second wave of strength is actually the strength of aerospace engine stocks.
Additionally, after the double-head pattern, there are signs approaching a second wave; could there be stocks attempting to form a large third wave?

As for gold, I think it will test the lows again. The specific reasoning is very complex, and I personally will wait for another opportunity to discuss it.