Indonesia and Global Tin Producers: Navigating Market Shifts and Supply Challenges in 2024

The global tin market faced considerable headwinds in 2023, with worldwide tin production falling by 2.1 percent year-over-year to reach 370,100 metric tons. This decline occurred amid a challenging macroeconomic environment that suppressed demand across key end-use sectors. China solidified its position as the world’s leading tin producer with mined output of 68,000 metric tons, while Myanmar secured second place at 54,000 metric tons. However, the most significant development was the emergence of supply constraints that fundamentally altered market dynamics heading into 2024, creating opportunities and challenges for both established and emerging tin producers globally.

The International Tin Association reported a notable market surplus of 9,700 tonnes in 2023, the direct result of declining production coupled with weak demand conditions. Yet even as macroeconomic uncertainty lingered, analysts anticipated a substantial recovery in demand paired with ongoing supply disruptions—particularly in Myanmar’s Wa State and across Indonesia—that would likely create tighter supply conditions throughout 2024. This projection proved prescient; by mid-2024, tin prices had climbed to levels unseen in nearly two years, with market watchers attributing the surge to exactly these factors. Fastmarkets analysts noted that global supply uncertainty emanating from Myanmar, combined with improving macroeconomic fundamentals and positive seasonal tailwinds, positioned fund managers to increase net long positions in tin futures markets.

China’s Unshakeable Dominance: The Yunnan Tin Dynasty

When examining the world’s largest tin producers, one company stands apart: Yunnan Tin Company (SZSE:000960), a state-owned enterprise that generated 80,100 metric tons of refined tin in 2023—a commanding lead that reflects its 4 percent year-over-year growth. Based in China’s Yunnan Province and tracing its operational heritage back to 1883, the company operates not only as the globe’s premier tin refiner but also as China’s most significant precious metals research and development hub. This combination of production scale and technical capability has cemented Yunnan Tin’s role as the linchpin of global tin supply.

China’s tin-producing ecosystem extends well beyond Yunnan, however. Yunnan Chengfeng Non-ferrous Metals, established in 1994, has emerged as the country’s second-largest refined tin producer, generating 21,800 metric tons in 2023—a 5.8 percent increase that reinforced its position as the world’s third-largest tin manufacturer. The company’s product portfolio encompasses not only tin but also indium, silver, gold, lead, bismuth, and antimony, reflecting the integrated nature of modern tin refining operations. Similarly, Guangxi China Tin, founded in 1990 and ranking as China’s third-largest tin producer, output 12,000 metric tons in 2023, up 10.1 percent from the prior year. Together, these three Chinese companies control roughly one-third of refined tin supply on a global scale.

Indonesia’s Tin Producers and the Challenge of Sustained Output

Indonesia occupies a critical but increasingly fragile position in the global tin supply chain, a reality exemplified by the trajectory of PT Timah (IDX:TINS), the nation’s state-owned flagship tin producer. Established in 1976 and headquartered in Bangka-Belitung Province, PT Timah has historically ranked among the world’s top tin-producing companies. Yet the company’s 2023 performance painted a troubling picture: refined tin production tumbled 22.7 percent year-over-year to 15,300 metric tons, relegating the firm to fifth place globally and continuing a disturbing downward trend that has persisted since 2021.

The causes behind PT Timah’s declining output reflect both structural and cyclical headwinds facing Indonesia’s tin industry more broadly. The company’s production had peaked at 26,500 metric tons in 2021, a level achieved partly through temporary market dynamics that saw private smelters cease independent operations and instead rent production capacity to PT Timah—effectively allowing the state firm to double its output that year. When these private smelters terminated their contracts in 2020, PT Timah’s production baseline contracted accordingly. More recently, the company has confronted mounting complications stemming from ongoing corruption investigations related to commodities trading operations, creating additional operational and reputational pressures that have dampened production expansion efforts.

These challenges underscore a broader vulnerability within Indonesia’s tin-producing sector and highlight why supply disruptions originating in the country remain a critical variable in global tin market forecasting. Whereas China’s producers operate within a stable, state-supported framework and foreign competitors have strengthened their operational footing, Indonesia’s largest tin producer faces institutional obstacles that constrain its ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

The Rest of the World: Diversified Production, Mixed Fortunes

Beyond China and Indonesia, the world’s tin supply network encompasses producers distributed across multiple continents, each navigating distinct competitive and operational pressures. Peru-based Minsur, a privately held company with roots stretching back to the early 20th century, commands the number-two global position with 31,700 metric tons of refined tin production in 2023. This figure, which declined 3.1 percent year-over-year, includes output from Taboca, its Brazilian subsidiary. Minsur’s crown jewel, the San Rafael mine in South America, operates as the continent’s largest tin-producing facility and alone generates roughly 12 percent of the world’s refined tin supply. The company also controls integrated smelting and refining capacity, establishing Minsur as a fully integrated tin producer capable of completing the entire supply chain from mining through final product refinement.

Malaysia Smelting (KLSE:MSC), a subsidiary of Singapore’s Straits Trading Company and operational since 1887, produced 20,700 metric tons in 2023, expanding 10.1 percent and displacing PT Timah from its previous ranking. The company has positioned itself as a leader in custom tin smelting, leveraging more than a century of operational experience. Bolivia’s state-owned Empresa Metalúrgica Vinto processed 10,000 metric tons in 2023 despite challenges ranging from socio-political unrest in neighboring Peru—which disrupted critical coal shipments to its smelting facilities—to mounting debt pressures that have constrained capital investment and production expansion.

Smaller but strategically significant producers round out the global landscape. Belgium’s Aurubis Beerse, with production of 9,300 metric tons in 2023 and growth of 13.4 percent, operates a specialized recycling and refining facility processing secondary raw materials for copper, tin, lead, and nickel production. The company positions itself as Europe’s largest tin producer and advocates strongly for zero-waste operational principles. Thailand’s Thaisarco (Thailand Smelting and Refining), operating since 1963, produced 9,200 metric tons in 2023, down 3.2 percent from the prior year. Under management from the United Kingdom’s Amalgamated Metal since 1995, Thaisarco recently renewed its three-year offtake agreement with Namibia’s Andrada Mining, securing supply of at least 90 metric tons monthly from the Uis mine.

The Consolidation Paradox: Market Structure in a Tightening Supply Environment

The top 10 refined tin producers together account for approximately 59 percent of global refined tin supply, a concentration figure that highlights both the economies of scale required for competitive tin production and the growing importance of supply disruptions at major producer locations. This market structure creates interesting dynamics: while China’s dominance provides stability through scale, the increasing vulnerability of secondary producers—particularly Indonesia—amplifies sensitivity to geopolitical and operational shocks.

The supply tightness anticipated for 2024 has indeed materialized, translating technical scarcity into price appreciation that rewards efficient producers while squeezing marginal operations. Going forward, Indonesia’s tin producers, Chinese refiners’ sustained investment, and Latin America’s established operations will collectively determine whether supply can rebalance with demand, or whether further supply constraints will drive prices to levels that catalyze substitution in key end-use applications. For investors tracking the sector, monitoring the quarterly production data from these largest global tin producers provides a reliable barometer of market fundamentals and emerging supply-demand imbalances.