February 2 | BTC Trend Analysis

Key Points

• Current Price: $77,666.01 (as of February 2)
• Short-term Outlook: After a recent sharp decline, BTC’s daily RSI (25.5) and 4-hour RSI (28.2) are both in extreme oversold territory, indicating potential technical rebounds or short-term consolidation. However, the daily MACD histogram remains negative (-1491.3), and the price is under pressure from the moving average system (SMA 50: $89,006.99, SMA 200: $103,740.30), suggesting limited rebound momentum. Overall, the market is in a bottoming-out phase, but leverage risks and high volatility should be watched carefully.
• Key Support Levels:
  • $77,203 (Bollinger Band lower band support)
  • $76,000 (psychological level and recent liquidation low)
• Key Resistance Levels:
  • $81,200 (local high resistance)
  • $84,500 (dense chip zone resistance)

Technical Analysis Details

Multi-timeframe Indicators Show Oversold Rebound Potential

• RSI Indicators:
  • Daily (1d) RSI at 25.5, in historically extreme oversold zone (below 30), often triggering technical rebounds in past cycles.
  • 4-hour RSI at 28.2, also oversold but slightly higher than daily, indicating slightly stronger short-term recovery momentum.
  • 1-hour RSI at 43.3, rebounded from oversold, suggesting minor buying interest within the day.
• MACD Signals:
  • Daily MACD histogram at -1491.3, with the signal line in negative territory, indicating bearish momentum has not fully reversed, but narrowing histogram suggests selling pressure may ease.
  • 4-hour MACD histogram at -233.7, shallower than the daily, supporting short-term recovery expectations.
• Bollinger Bands Test:
  • Current price ($77,666) is close to the lower Bollinger Band ($77,203), which typically acts as short-term support. Holding this level could trigger a rebound toward the middle band ($88,581).
  • Bollinger Band width is narrowing (upper band $99,959, lower band $77,203), indicating reduced volatility and a potential upcoming directional move.
• Moving Average System Resistance:
  • Price below all major MAs (SMA 20: $88,581, SMA 50: $89,006, SMA 200: $103,740), confirming a bearish overall trend. A rebound would need to break above SMA 20 to ease downward pressure.

Derivatives Market Sentiment

Leverage Liquidations and Position Structure

• Liquidation Data: Total market liquidation over the past 24 hours reached $158 million, with longs accounting for 75% (long-short ratio 3.03), indicating significant long liquidation and reduced short-term selling pressure.
• Open Interest (OI): BTC open contracts (OI) at $52.4 billion, the highest across the network. High OI often correlates with high volatility, but a recent 2.31% decline suggests some leverage has been unwound, which is positive for market stability.
• Funding Rates: Average funding rate at 0.3606%, a neutral level, far from extreme positive rates, indicating market sentiment is returning to balance and reducing the risk of a long squeeze.

Long-Short Ratio and Market Bias

• Overall platform long-short ratios do not show extreme bias, but major exchanges like Binance have L/S ratios favoring longs (e.g., SOL ratio at 4.11), indicating strong bullish sentiment there. BTC’s long-short structure remains relatively balanced, supporting a consolidation pattern.

News and Event Impact

Recent Market Catalysts

• Price Breakouts and Pullbacks: BTC dropped from a high of $89,000 to below $76,000 over the past week (a decline of over 14%), mainly driven by macroeconomic pressures (stronger dollar, rate hike expectations) and chain reaction liquidations.
• Whale Activity Signals: Large transfers to exchanges (e.g., 2,697 BTC transferred to Gemini) may indicate short-term selling pressure, but on-chain data also shows long-term holders increasing their positions, adding some conflicting signals and volatility.
• Institutional Movements: MicroStrategy and other institutions’ cost basis levels (~$76,000) serve as psychological support. Falling below this could trigger algorithmic selling, while holding above may attract bottom-fishing capital.

Overall Outlook and Trading Suggestions

Short-term (February 2): Oversold technical signals support a rebound testing the $79,000–$80,000 zone, but a confirmed reversal requires breaking through $81,200. If support at $76,000 fails, the price could decline further to the $72,000–$74,000 range.
Risk Reminder: High open interest and macro uncertainties (e.g., Federal Reserve policies) could amplify volatility. Avoid high leverage positions. Monitor Bollinger Band lower support and RSI recovery as entry signals.

Data Sources: Price data from CoinGecko, technical indicators from TAAPI, derivatives data from Coinglass, news from Bitcoin World and social media sentiment.