2026 Cryptocurrency Market 26 Major Predictions: Will Bitcoin Reach New Highs? Can it surge to $250,000?

Looking back at the market fluctuations in 2025, we see maturity and opportunities in the cryptocurrency industry. After the optimism at the beginning of the year and adjustments mid-year, the industry is now thinking more rationally about the direction of 2026.

Bitcoin: A Year Full of Uncertainty, but Long-Term Bullishness Remains Valid

Expected Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027

The 2026 market may be quite volatile, making precise predictions difficult. However, Bitcoin could still hit new all-time highs in 2026. Based on options market data, investors see roughly equal probabilities of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 or $130,000 before June, and by the end of 2026, the chances of $50,000 or $250,000 are also comparable. This broad price range reflects short-term market uncertainty.

The entire crypto market is currently in a bear market, and Bitcoin has yet to regain a bullish momentum. As long as Bitcoin’s price remains outside the $100,000 to $105,000 range, we see short-term downside risks. Additionally, broader financial market factors are increasing uncertainty—including the pace of AI capital expenditure, monetary policy environment, and the US midterm elections in November.

Notably, Bitcoin’s long-term volatility shows a structural downward trend—partly driven by the emergence of larger-scale options and Bitcoin yield-generating programs. Currently, Bitcoin’s volatility curve prices implied volatility for put options higher than for call options, a stark contrast to six months ago. In other words, we are shifting from the volatility skew common in emerging markets to the characteristics of traditional macro assets.

Even if Bitcoin fluctuates between $200,000 and $150,000 in 2026, this increased maturity and institutional adoption will only reinforce our long-term bullish outlook. As institutional access expands, monetary policy loosens, and demand for non-USD hedged assets grows, Bitcoin may follow gold’s trajectory over the next two years, becoming an inflation hedge.

Layer 1 and Layer 2: Ecosystem Diversification

Solana’s internet capital market cap will reach $2 billion

Solana’s on-chain economy is gradually maturing, shifting from meme-driven activity to platforms with real revenue. This transition is driven by improvements in Solana’s market structure and increased demand for fundamental tokens. As investors increasingly favor sustainable on-chain businesses over short-term meme cycles, the internet capital market will become a pillar of Solana’s economic activity.

At least one mainstream Layer 1 blockchain will integrate applications that directly create value for native tokens

As more projects reconsider how Layer 1 chains can capture and retain value, blockchain development is moving toward more functional designs. Successful cases of integrating revenue models into transaction protocols, and the trend of value capture shifting from protocol layer to application layer driven by the “Fat App Theory,” are resetting expectations for neutral base chains. More chains are exploring embedding revenue-generating infrastructure within protocols to strengthen token economics.

By 2026, at least one major Layer 1 will officially integrate applications capable of generating revenue for the protocol layer, with economic benefits directly accruing to its native token.

Solana’s inflation reduction proposal will not pass in 2026

Solana’s inflation rate has been a focus of community debate over the past year. Although a new inflation reduction proposal was introduced in November, consensus has not been reached. Increasing voices argue that inflation issues distract from more important priorities. Moreover, changing SOL’s inflation policy could impact its perception as a neutral store of value and currency asset. We expect this proposal to be shelved.

Enterprise-grade Layer 1 will shift from pilot to actual settlement infrastructure

At least one Fortune 500 bank, cloud provider, or e-commerce platform will launch a branded enterprise Layer 1 blockchain in 2026, settling over $1 billion in real economic activity, while operating a production-grade cross-chain bridge connected to the public DeFi ecosystem.

Early enterprise chains were mostly internal experiments or marketing stunts, but the next wave will focus more on application-specific base chains targeting verticals, with validation layers from regulated issuers and banks, while leveraging public chains for liquidity, collateral, and price discovery. This will clearly differentiate neutral public chains from enterprise chains that integrate issuance, settlement, and distribution.

The ratio of application layer revenue to network layer revenue will double in 2026

As transaction fees, DeFi, wallets, and new consumer applications dominate on-chain fee generation, value capture is shifting from the base layer to the application layer. Meanwhile, the network’s structure reduces miner extractable value leakage and pressures Layer 1 and Layer 2 fees, shrinking the revenue base of infrastructure layers. This accelerates value capture at the application layer, with the “Fat App Theory” continuing to outperform the “Fat Protocol Theory.”

Stablecoins and Asset Tokenization: On-Chain Migration of Traditional Finance

US SEC will provide exemptions for tokenized securities in DeFi

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will offer exemptions to promote the development of on-chain tokenized securities markets. This may take the form of a “no-action letter” or the “innovative exemption” repeatedly mentioned by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins. This will allow legitimate, non-wrapped on-chain securities to enter DeFi markets, not just as in the recent DTCC “no-action letter” used for back-end capital markets activities.

We expect formal rulemaking to begin in the first half of 2026 to establish frameworks for broker-dealers, traders, exchanges, and other traditional market participants to use crypto or tokenized securities.

Stablecoin trading volume will surpass ACH system

Compared to traditional payment systems, stablecoins circulate faster. We have observed stablecoin supply growing at a compound annual rate of 30%-40%, with trading volume increasing accordingly. Stablecoin trading volume has already surpassed major credit card networks like Visa, currently about half of US ACH system transaction volume.

With new payment regulation frameworks emerging in early 2026, stablecoin growth may exceed historical averages as existing stablecoins continue to expand and new participants enter this growing market.

Integration of stablecoin collaborations with traditional finance accelerates

Despite many stablecoins launched in the US in 2025, the market cannot support numerous widely used options. Consumers and merchants will not use many digital dollars simultaneously; they will choose one or two most common. We see a trend of major institutional collaborations: nine leading banks exploring G7 currency-based stablecoin plans; payment platforms partnering with regulated issuers to launch new stablecoin products. Success depends on distribution scale—whether they can reach banks, payment processors, and enterprise platforms.

We expect more stablecoin issuers to collaborate or integrate systems to gain significant market share.

Major banks or brokerages will accept tokenized stocks as collateral

So far, tokenized stocks remain on the fringe, limited to DeFi experiments and private blockchains led by major banks. However, core infrastructure providers in traditional finance are accelerating toward blockchain-based systems, with increasing regulatory support. In the next year, we may see major banks or brokerages accept on-chain tokenized stocks as deposits, treating them as equivalents of traditional securities.

Card networks will gain access to public blockchains

At least one of the top three global card networks will use public chain stablecoins to settle over 10% of their cross-border transactions, even though most end-users will not see crypto interfaces. Issuers and acquirers’ balances and liabilities will still be shown in traditional formats, but some net settlement between regional entities will be done with tokenized dollars on the backend, reducing settlement cut-off times, pre-funding needs, and bank risk. This will make stablecoins a core financial infrastructure of today’s payment networks.

DeFi: Mainstreaming Decentralized Finance

Over 25% of spot trading volume will flow to decentralized exchanges

While centralized exchanges still dominate liquidity and new user acquisition, structural shifts are pushing more spot trading activity onto chains. The two most attractive advantages of decentralized exchanges are non-KYC access and more efficient fee structures, which appeal to users and market makers seeking lower friction and higher composability.

Currently, about 15%-17% of spot trading volume is on decentralized exchanges, depending on data sources.

Total assets in prediction market governance DAOs will exceed $500 million

Based on our predictions last year, prediction markets as governance mechanisms will become more widespread, and their effectiveness has been proven in practice. DAOs are now adopting prediction markets as their sole decision-making system for capital allocation and strategy. By the end of 2026, we expect the total assets in prediction market governance DAOs to surpass $500 million.

Total crypto collateralized loans will exceed $90 billion

Following the momentum of 2025, the total value of crypto-backed loans is expected to continue expanding in DeFi and CeFi in 2026. On-chain dominance (loan shares provided on decentralized platforms) will keep increasing as institutional participants rely more on DeFi protocols for lending and borrowing.

Stablecoin interest rates will remain stable, DeFi lending costs will not exceed 10%

As institutional participation in on-chain lending increases, liquidity will deepen, and capital will move more steadily and slowly, reducing interest rate volatility. Arbitrage between on-chain and off-chain rates will become easier, raising barriers to entry for DeFi. We expect off-chain rates to further decline in 2026, keeping on-chain borrowing rates low.

Total market cap of privacy coins will exceed $100 billion by the end of 2026

In Q4 2025, privacy coins gained significant attention. As more funds flow on-chain, privacy becomes a central topic. Among the three main privacy coins, one surged about 800% that quarter, another 204%, and the third 53%.

In early Bitcoin days, including pseudonymous founders, people pondered how to make transactions more private or fully anonymous, but zero-knowledge tech was not mature enough then. As more funds flow on-chain, users (especially institutions) are considering whether they truly want to reveal their crypto holdings. Whether fully anonymous designs or hybrid solutions prevail, the total market cap of privacy coins is expected to surpass $100 billion by the end of 2026.

Prediction market platforms’ weekly trading volume will stabilize above $1.5 billion in 2026

Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing categories in crypto, with a major platform approaching $1 billion in weekly trading volume. We expect this to stabilize above $1.5 billion in 2026, as new capital efficiency layers improve liquidity and AI-driven order flow increases trading frequency. The platform’s distribution capabilities are also improving, accelerating capital inflows.

Traditional Finance Integration

Over 50 spot altcoin ETFs and 50 other crypto ETF products will be launched in the US

With the SEC’s approval of general listing standards, the launch of spot altcoin ETFs is expected to accelerate in 2026. Over 15 spot ETFs for Solana, XRP, Hedera, Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Chainlink have already listed in 2025. Other major assets are expected to follow. Besides single-asset products, multi-asset crypto ETFs and leveraged crypto ETFs are also anticipated.

Net inflows into US spot crypto ETFs will exceed $50 billion

In 2025, US spot crypto ETFs attracted $23 billion in net inflows. As institutional adoption deepens, this figure is expected to grow faster in 2026. As financial service firms lift restrictions on crypto advisory recommendations and major platforms previously skeptical of crypto join the crypto fund space, inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum will surpass 2025 levels, entering more portfolios.

Major asset allocation platforms will include Bitcoin in their standard model portfolios

After three major financial service firms lifted restrictions on recommending Bitcoin and supported 1-4% allocations, the next step will be to include Bitcoin products in their recommended lists and formally cover them in research, increasing client visibility. The ultimate goal is to incorporate Bitcoin into model portfolios, which typically requires higher fund AUM and sustained liquidity, but we expect Bitcoin funds to reach these thresholds and enter model portfolios with a 1-2% strategic weight.

Over 15 crypto companies will go public or upgrade listings in the US

In 2025, 10 crypto-related companies successfully listed or upgraded in the US. Since 2018, over 290 crypto and blockchain firms have completed more than $50 million in private funding. With relaxed regulations, many companies are ready to seek US listings to access the US capital markets.

Policy and Regulation

Some Democratic politicians will focus on “financial exclusion” issues and gradually accept crypto as a solution

Although less likely, it’s worth noting: in late November 2025, the US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) urged financial institutions to “remain vigilant” against suspicious activity, potentially broadening the scope of what is considered suspicious financial behavior. This could impact access to financial services for the working class.

This may lead some pro-immigration Democrats to develop greater sympathy for “financial exclusion” issues, making them more open to permissionless, censorship-resistant financial networks.

Conversely, some populist, bank-friendly Republicans may begin to view crypto skeptically, despite longstanding support from the Trump administration and Republican innovation advocates. If such political realignment occurs, it will demonstrate that there is no permanent political camp supporting blockchain. Its permissionless nature means acceptance or rejection is not an ideological issue but depends on how it influences political priorities of different groups at different times.

US authorities will investigate insider trading or manipulation in prediction markets

As US regulators permit the development of on-chain prediction markets, trading volume and open interest have surged. Meanwhile, some scandals have surfaced, including insiders using private information to front-run markets. Since traders can operate pseudonymously and platforms are not subject to KYC, insiders find it easier to attempt market manipulation or exploit privileged information. Consequently, abnormal price movements in on-chain prediction markets may trigger investigations, rather than the usual oversight of regulated sports betting platforms.