When Will the Bleeding Stop? Decoding Bitcoin's Recent Surge and What It Means

The crypto market just delivered a powerful counterattack on November 26. Bitcoin punched through $90,000 in commanding fashion, erasing Tuesday’s losses and defying the typical holiday market weakness that usually defines pre-Thanksgiving trading. But this isn’t just a random bounce—it’s the result of converging tailwinds: shifting monetary policy expectations, fresh institutional capital, and a market structure that’s finally cleaning itself up.

Institutional Money is Back in Play

The most tangible evidence lies in the ETF data. After weeks of relentless capital hemorrhaging that had shattered historical records, Wednesday brought a dramatic reversal. Bitcoin ETFs absorbed nearly $129 million, while Ethereum ETFs pulled in over $78 million. Solana (SOL) attracted $53 million and XRP grabbed $35 million. This isn’t passive rebalancing—it’s active institutional reallocation signaling renewed confidence.

On the micro level, liquidation patterns reveal the market’s internal struggle: $273 million in total liquidations occurred over 24 hours, with shorts taking the brunt at $197 million. Bitcoin alone saw $86 million in forced closures. Translation: overleveraged bears got flushed out, and survivors are recalibrating their positions.

Current snapshot from the latest data:

• Bitcoin (BTC): $90.77K with $762.58M in 24h volume
• Ethereum (ETH): $3.12K, up 0.38% in 24h
• Solana (SOL): Up 2.27% over 24h
• XRP: Down 2.43% in 24h
• BNB: Down 1.30% in 24h

The broader crypto market cap clawed back to $3.08 trillion, recovering 3% in a single day. Bitcoin’s dominance jumped to 56.5%, while Ethereum held steady at 11.5%.

The Macro Story Gets Interesting

Here’s where the interest rate narrative matters. U.S. initial jobless claims tumbled to 216,000—the lowest since mid-April—and the core PPI edged up only 2.6%, marking the smallest increase since July 2024. Yes, energy and food costs pushed the headline number higher, but underneath, inflation pressures are moderating.

This data shifted JPMorgan economists’ calculus overnight. One week ago, they were betting on January rate cuts. Now? December is back on the table, with expectations for 25 basis point reductions in both December and January. Several Federal Reserve officials, particularly New York Fed President Williams, have publicly signaled openness to near-term moves. That messaging reaches traders instantly and reshapes market psychology.

Result: Bitcoin climbed nearly 4% on the day; Ethereum notched 2%. Altcoins benefited across the board.

Are We Seeing Capitulation Signals?

On-chain analyst Ali flagged something important: the Puell Multiple—which measures miners’ selling pressure relative to their annual average revenue—now sits at 0.67. Historically, when this dips below 0.50, it often coincides with cycle bottoms. We’re not there yet, but we’re getting close. The implication? Miners may be moderating their sell-offs, reducing downward pressure on price.

CryptoQuant data adds another layer. Open interest cratered from $45 billion to $28 billion—the cycle’s steepest drop. Rather than panic territory, this represents a “leverage flush”: inflated speculation getting purged, replaced by healthier positioning.

Technician Skew Δ observed that Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart presents bullish structural alignment. The 50EMA, RSI, and Stochastic RSI all point positive. The $88,000 level serves as the psychological floor for bulls; $90,000-$92,000 is the contested zone where conviction gets tested. Breaking above requires sustained buying, not just a one-day spike.

The Caveats Still Matter

Thanksgiving week typically suffers from thin liquidity, which cuts both ways: rallies can turn on a dime, and dips can accelerate. Options market positioning suggests traders aren’t expecting a breakout—most bets cluster around the $85,000-$90,000 range, implying a “wait and see” posture rather than conviction buying.

Watch the weekly close around $74,000. If Bitcoin falls below that, expect meaningful correction pressure. We’re still down roughly 28% from the historical peak of $126,080, leaving plenty of downside room if confidence cracks.

The bottom line: Capital is rotating back into crypto, miners are easing supply pressure, and macroeconomic expectations are tilting dovish. But sustainability hinges on whether monetary policy actually delivers and whether institutions maintain their bid. One week’s bounce doesn’t erase months of weakness.