#2026年比特币价格展望 US December CPI data will be released tonight at 21:30, and the market is already tense. On the surface, the 3.1% annual rebound seems like a signal of inflation resurgence, but a deeper look reveals another layer of logic: the data adjustments after partial government shutdowns do not fully correspond to actual price pressures. This also explains why Bitcoin's 24-hour volatility has surged to 40%—the market is digesting not just inflation expectations, but also uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy shift.

A more noteworthy detail is the unemployment rate data. The official figure of 4.6% hits a four-year high, but before rounding, it is 4.573%—this precise figure exposes subtle discrepancies between statistics and reality. The interest rate futures market, however, signals something different: the probability of rate cuts in March is decreasing, and expectations for June rate cuts have sharply declined. Institutions have preemptively positioned for this expectation gap, while retail investors are often swayed by emotions.

From a position management perspective, risk control is more critical than ever. Some professional strategies are worth noting: reallocating part of the funds into stablecoins for locked-in yields, seeking hedging opportunities in DeFi lending protocols, and reserving a portion of positions for short-term trading with strict stop-loss settings. This is not panic but rational hedging during high volatility periods.

Returning to the core: CPI data is an emotional trigger, but interest rate expectations are the true determinants of capital flow. In this game of data versus expectations, investors who see through the surface and avoid emotional traps will have the chance to seize the next cycle. Tonight's market movement will directly test the market's consensus on future Federal Reserve policies.