Market volatility dynamics in 2026: why metals may dominate digital assets

Gold and Silver Make a Comeback as Stocks Waver

The latest analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence reveals a fascinating pattern in financial markets: during periods of heightened stock market volatility, metals demonstrate significantly greater resilience than cryptocurrencies. Strategist Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence presented a detailed comparative analysis that tracks the dynamics of two competing asset classes through the lens of S&P 500 volatility and total return performance indicators.

The comparison between the Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index shows a clear trend: when stock volatility increases, cryptocurrencies experience intense price fluctuations, while the metals index exhibits much more stable behavior. This historical correlation suggests that 2026 could be a year of metals’ dominance, especially if turbulence in stock markets persists at elevated levels.

Historical Evidence: Metals Outperformed During Crises

Historical data from 2020-2025 provides compelling arguments. During periods of tightening financial conditions and increased market uncertainty, metals consistently aligned better with global volatility trends. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, displayed erratic behavior, with spectacular rises interspersed with dramatic declines, often uncorrelated with the actual fundamental conditions of the stock market.

Patterns observed between 2018 and 2023 clearly indicate that periods of stable stock volatility allowed metals to preserve their relative strength, while spikes in the volatility index worked against digital assets.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Ratio Diverges Further

A second aspect of Bloomberg Intelligence’s analysis focuses on the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio in the context of stock market volatility. The Bloomberg Economics valuation model forecasts that the current ratio of around 20x as of December 29 will decline toward 13x, reflecting the historical relationship between stock market stability and the relative value of digital assets versus precious metals.

Observations from early 2025 confirm these historical patterns: increases in volatility readings directly correspond with downward pressure on the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, suggesting that investors are systematically reallocating capital toward more traditional safe-haven assets.

Implications for Investor Portfolios

The data presented by Bloomberg Intelligence send a clear message: when stock markets show signs of turbulence, diversification into precious metals and commodities offers more reliable capital protection than exposure to cryptocurrencies. Volatility remains a key factor influencing the relative performance of these assets, and with forecasts indicating sustained elevated levels in the stock market, metals should remain the preferred choice for conservative investors seeking stability in 2026.