## Copper Peaks: When the Market Exhausts Its Supplies

The global copper market is showing extreme tension. In recent months, prices have surpassed the $13 000 mark per ton for the first time in history, signaling a critical supply shortage and a shift in global trade flows.

### Why the world is running out of copper: three key factors

**Supply crisis in development**

In Chile – the world's largest copper producer – a serious situation has unfolded. A strike at the Mantoverde mine threatens extraction, which means a loss of 0.5% of global production. At the same time, mining operations in other regions are also facing disruptions, further tightening already limited reserves on leading exchanges.

**American tariffs stir the market**

U.S. policy, influenced by the proposed 15% tariffs set for June 2026, has caused traders to massively redirect supplies to the United States right now. Uncertainty about future trade conditions creates artificial demand, accelerating extraction and stockpiling in the U.S. If tariffs on refined copper are canceled, global prices could sharply decline due to reverse flows back into the market.

**Market resilience limits**

The "cash – three months" spread on the London Metal Exchange remains in backwardation, confirming a sharp short-term deficit. Stockpiles on exchanges are already close to critical minimums, so any new disruption in copper mining could trigger a price explosion or a sudden market crash.

### How copper became the star of 2025

A 42% increase in copper prices in 2025 is the highest annual result among the six main industrial metals traded on the LME since 2009. This indicator reflects not just cyclical demand but a systemic mismatch between global mining and industry needs.

ING analysts forecast that this tension will persist until global trade wars find a resolution. Copper, as a strategic material for electrification and green technologies, remains at the center of geopolitical and economic competition. The copper market is currently at its resilience limit – and the next step depends on how U.S. trade policy evolves further.