December US CPI is approaching. What do these three scenarios mean for crypto assets?

【BlockBeats】On January 12th, the market is currently waiting for a data release. This Tuesday at 21:30, the US will announce the December CPI, and this figure might be more complex than it appears.

First, let’s look at the background. When the November non-farm payroll report was released, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% (exactly 4.573%), hitting a four-year high. The market initially thought this would boost expectations for rate cuts, but the government shutdown’s residual effects and questions about data quality kept expectations from strengthening significantly. Currently, interest rate futures show a 98% chance that the January meeting will keep rates unchanged, with the timing of the first rate cut remaining vague—possibly in March, April, or June—but no month has a pricing probability exceeding 50%. This uncertainty itself is a source of market anxiety.

So, how should we interpret the December CPI? The mainstream expectation is a slight rebound. The overall CPI year-over-year rate is expected to rise from 3.0% in November to 3.1%, while core CPI remains roughly flat at 3.0%. Don’t worry; this isn’t a sign of runaway inflation. It’s mainly a statistical correction after the Labor Department’s data collection returned to normal, reflecting adjustments in the data basis rather than a deterioration of the economic fundamentals.

From a trading perspective, this number can lead to different scenarios:

In line with expectations: If the data falls within 3.0%-3.1%, the impact on risk assets will be limited. The market will focus on technical levels, waiting for the next signal.

Surprisingly higher, especially if core CPI jumps sharply: This could trigger concerns about inflation stickiness—if core inflation refuses to come down, the Fed may be forced to delay rate cuts. In the short term, risk appetite will be suppressed, and cryptocurrencies might face short-term pullbacks.

A low-probability surprise decline: If CPI unexpectedly weakens, combined with continued deterioration in employment data, these forces could reinforce easing expectations, which would be positive for risk assets. But this scenario has a low probability.

The key point is that the December CPI is very likely to amplify short-term market volatility. Especially those “extreme readings”—whether too high or too low—will directly impact rate expectations and asset pricing. For traders seeking stability, this Tuesday night’s data release calls for cautious leverage and stop-loss strategies—don’t let a single report disrupt your entire position rhythm.