Bitcoin's decline between October and November 2025: market dynamics, structural vulnerabilities, and what to expect in the year's closing

When discussing the crash that occurred between October and November 2025, it is clear that we are facing an event of significant proportions. Bitcoin lost about one-third of its market capitalization, crossing the trillion-dollar mark in a market correction. It was not just a simple technical fluctuation but an event that exposed critical dynamics within the crypto sector and its interconnectedness with global markets.

The roots of the decline: when leverage meets external shock

The weekend of October 10-12 marks the point of no return. In just a few hours, Bitcoin plummeted below $105,000 from the highs of $124,000-$126,000 reached a few days earlier. Ethereum experienced losses of 11-12%, while a significant portion of altcoins suffered declines between 40% and 70%, with some less liquid instruments reaching near-zero values.

The immediate trigger was geopolitical: the Trump administration announced tariffs up to 100% on imports from China, triggering a risk-off wave in global financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, notoriously sensitive to sentiment shifts, found themselves on the front line. However, this external shock acted more as a catalyst than a root cause.

The real vulnerability lay in the structure of the market itself. Between October 10 and 11, leveraged positions worth between $17 billion and $19 billion were liquidated in less than 24 hours, involving up to 1.6 million traders simultaneously. This mechanism transformed a macroeconomic news event into a technical avalanche: as prices started to fall, margin calls triggered automatic liquidations, further accelerating the decline. Algorithms amplified the movement, liquidity evaporated, and market psychology turned sour.

What was happening before the shock: narrative-price misalignment

In the preceding months, the market was experiencing a fragile balance. On one side, Federal Reserve rate cuts and stimulus program announcements suggested a return of liquidity. On the other, official communications remained cautious, conveying that unconditional “easy money” would not return.

In this uncertain environment, many operators had built excessive positions based on an overly bullish narrative. Bitcoin above $150,000, crypto market cap at 5-10 trillion dollars: the widespread expectation was that the path was almost certain, with timing as the only variable. When reality contradicted this view, the gap between the “story told” and the “actual prices” generated panic, especially among traders who entered positions during phases of maximum euphoria.

The current state and Bitcoin’s position in the following months

We are now in the first quarter of 2026, with Bitcoin trading around $91,000-$93,000, representing a 25-27% correction from October’s peaks. Real-time data show BTC at $91.58K, with modest movements in recent days (+0.87% in the last 24 hours, -1.15% over seven days, +1.26% over thirty days).

The persistent question among operators remains the same: is the worst behind us, or could further downward pressures emerge before the year’s end?

Three evolving scenarios: gradual recovery, lateralization, or new decline

The first scenario involves a gradual absorption of the shock. Some signals already suggest the return of accumulation by long-term holders and rebalancing operations increasing exposure to Bitcoin and large caps, at the expense of more speculative altcoins.

The second scenario contemplates a prolonged sideways phase: the market stops falling but fails to generate a convincing rebound. It is an ideal environment for false signals and intraday volatility that do not translate into medium-term directionality. For short-term traders, this phase can be particularly frustrating.

The third, most severe scenario, predicts a second downward leg. In this context, Bitcoin could more decisively test the area between $70,000 and $80,000, while the altcoin segment might face depressed volumes and a lack of positive catalysts in the short term.

What historical data say about seasonality: analyzing the last quarter with a statistical lens

Analysis of Bitcoin’s monthly seasonality from 2017 to 2024 reveals an interesting picture. Generally, the year’s final period tends to be moderately bullish over the last eight years, albeit with notable volatility. Looking at individual years, there are concluding quarters characterized by strong rallies alternated with others marked by significant corrections.

This historical variability reflects how seasonal behavior is not mechanical but heavily dependent on macroeconomic context, trader positioning, and external events.

How institutional investors are responding: rebalancing, not fleeing

A different element compared to previous cycles is the structured presence of institutional capital. Many funds that in 2021-2022 operated in cryptocurrencies almost exclusively with a speculative approach are now integrating them into diversified macro strategies.

Despite the October drawdown, communications from major trading desks indicate rebalancing and portfolio protection operations, not a definitive exit from the asset class. This behavior contrasts with the panicked rushes of the past.

The October event also heightened regulatory attention. Authorities already working on frameworks for spot ETFs and stablecoins see what happened as further confirmation that the question is no longer if to regulate the sector, but how to do so without stifling innovation. Emerging proposals include increased transparency on leverage used, more rigorous risk management requirements for exchanges, and uniform reporting standards for institutional operators exposed to cryptocurrencies.

What we need to understand before drawing conclusions

The October-November 2025 decline represents a crucial test of the sector’s maturity. It demonstrated how quickly a political shock can propagate in a highly interconnected, globalized ecosystem still dominated by aggressive leverage exposures.

At the same time, it highlighted that the market remains liquid and operational even under extreme pressure. The presence of institutional operators has shifted the “all or nothing” approach of the past toward more orderly rebalancing processes.

Looking toward the end of the year and beyond, the priority for investors is not to guess Bitcoin’s price at the period’s close but to understand the nature of this phase. On one hand, tangible risks of further shocks fueled by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persist. On the other, the crash has accelerated natural selection among solid projects and pure speculation that the market had been delaying for some time.

Cryptocurrencies remain a high-volatility asset where leverage management requires extreme caution, especially in complex macroeconomic contexts. And since volatility is structural, those exposed must operate with clear time horizons, rigorous risk management, and awareness that episodes like the October 2025 event are not abnormal deviations but intrinsic components of the crypto cycle.