How the "Four Seasons" of 2025 shaped BTC's trajectory: from euphoria to volatility

2025 delivered a lesson of humility to the crypto markets. What started as a year of almost certain promises—with BTC opening at $93,507 and shining with optimism—turned into a fascinating dance between excess and uncertainty. The “four seasons” of the market told a story far from trivial: from initial euphoria to regulatory turbulence, from the race to all-time highs to the year-end consolidation that continues to spark debate among operators.

Spring of Optimism: when Trump and the Fed wrote the perfect script

Early January brought an almost unnatural bullish charge. The Federal Reserve kept rates steady between 4.25% and 4.5%, but signals were clear: the central bank was preparing the ground for easing liquidity. Powell reiterated that rate cuts would only come if there were “real progress on inflation,” creating a well-calibrated atmosphere of anticipation.

But the true catalyst arrived on January 20, when Trump returned to the White House as the first “crypto president” in American history. This convergence—signals of monetary easing + return of a leader favorable to the sector—caused digital asset demand to explode. BTC steadily climbed, surpassing $100,000 as early as February and remaining firmly above that level for most of the month.

Summer of volatility: fees and corrections

But it couldn’t last. At the end of February, Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective March 4. What seemed like a tactical move turned into a shockwave for global markets.

The Fed meeting on March 23 dealt the blow: rates unchanged, yes, but with a upward revision of inflation expectations. The “rapid rate cut rally” was over before it even started. The market revised its bets, and BTC paid the price: a brief wave of selling, increased volatility, and a preference for safe havens.

Autumn of glory and unexpected highs

Yet the market was not finished. If the “four seasons” of 2025 have a lesson, it is this: the resilience of trends when fundamentals remain solid.

From May onward, the context flipped. On June 17, the Senate approved the “GENIUS Act” for stablecoin regulation. On July 18, Trump signed it, marking the first time in American history that digital stablecoins received a real regulatory framework. Simultaneously, the House approved the “No CBDC Surveillance State Act” and the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act,” creating an increasingly favorable regulatory environment.

Meanwhile, on September 18, the Fed made its first 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the range to 4%-4.25%. Liquidity resumed flowing into risky assets. On October 1, the government shutdown generated further demand for safe assets, and BTC became the preferred choice for institutions and retail investors.

The result? BTC hit an all-time high of $124,774 on October 7, with an absolute maximum of 126.08K according to recent data. Throughout October, the price remained firmly above $110,000.

Winter of doubt: when macroeconomic reality knocks on the door

But as with all the “four seasons,” winter arrived inexorably. On November 1, BTC was at $109,574; from there, a gradual decline began. On November 23, the price touched $84,682—a 22.71% drop in less than three weeks.

The cause? The government shutdown created a void of economic data. Without these signals, the market began questioning the future of interest rates and the health of the economy. Although BTC remained above $90,000 for most of November and December, the bullish trend visibly weakened.

On December 10, the Fed made its third rate cut of (25 basis points), but the market interpreted it not as an opportunity, but as a sign of impending recession—a “recessionary cut.” Investors started favoring more cautious allocations.

Currently, BTC is quoted at $91.55K (+0.94% in the last 24 hours, but -1.07% over seven days), with operators awaiting a possible “Christmas rally” as the year’s final shake.

Lessons of the “four seasons”: what to expect in 2026

The “four seasons” of 2025 have drawn a very clear chart: the correlation between BTC and traditional financial markets has increased significantly, and the political cycle—Trump, Fed, regulation—continued to dominate the price agenda.

For 2026, two variables deserve maximum attention: the definitive path of global rates and the consolidation of the new crypto regulatory framework in the United States. If 2025 has taught us anything, it is that the “four seasons” of volatility can change rapidly, and those who stay attentive to macro cycles—rather than chasing all-time highs—will have a better chance of navigating the year ahead.