Is Bitcoin halving losing its significance? Industry leader responds to the debate about bear and bull markets in cryptocurrencies

The debate on the cyclical shifts between bear and bull markets in the cryptocurrency space is taking on new dimensions. Lin Han, founder of the Gate platform, emphasized that significant changes are expected in how crypto cycles are evaluated.

Bitcoin Halving as a Less Influential Mechanism

Lin Han’s observations indicate a fundamental shift in market dynamics. While the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle was once a basis for market predictions, its influence is significantly waning. The industry leader argues that, with increasing market maturity and limited new supply, halving has become a marginalized element in the market equation. Today, Bitcoin no longer operates in isolation as an independent ecosystem but is part of a broader spectrum of high-risk assets.

Integration with Global Markets Changes the Rules of the Game

Cryptocurrencies are increasingly linked to the US stock market and global macroeconomics. This shift in perspective means that traditional indicators—such as halving—carry less weight than macroeconomic conditions. Cryptocurrency movements now follow broader market trends, making market prediction more complex than before.

Market History: From DeFi to Uncertainty

Market turning points have been correlated with internal industry dynamics. The year 2020 brought transformative phenomena, especially during the “DeFi Summer,” but the market quickly cooled in 2022 due to worsening economic conditions post-pandemic. The years 2022–2023 represented a period of relative stagnation until ETF approvals and optimism about economic recovery again stimulated the market at the turn of 2023 and 2024.

Bear Scenario: More Moderate Than in the Past?

Lin Han notes that the radical crashes characteristic of previous cycles are unlikely. Even in the case of a correction from $100,000–$120,000 to $80,000–$90,000, valuations would remain relatively high in a historical context. This observation suggests that future fluctuations between bear and bull markets may be less dramatic than in previous cycles.

Data from the Gate platform indicate that the reported volume declines in November were more limited than external reports suggested, which could signal market stability.

New Risks: AI Sector Bubble

However, the exchange leader points to a significant threat on the horizon. While this year has seen massive capital flows into data centers and computing infrastructure, caution has emerged regarding the healthy profitability of investments. The question “Is this a bubble?” gains importance amid uncertainty about returns from large infrastructure projects, despite companies like Nvidia showing strong financial results.

Uncertainty about profitability in the AI sector could thus become a key factor shaping future bull and bear cycles in the coming months.