## The Era of Institutional Takeover Has Begun: Why a 5% Drop in BTC Is the Biggest Bullish Signal?

The performance of the crypto market in 2025 has indeed been disappointing—BTC is down 3.37% year-to-date (currently $91.4K), ETH even worse at -4.50%, and many altcoins have declined 35%-60%. But if you only look at the price, you'll miss a pivotal turning point in the get paradigma: this is not the arrival of a bear market, but the beginning of a power transition.

### **The Truth Beneath the Surface: Institutions Are Buying $25B at "High" Levels**

Looks grim? Let's examine some surface data first. In traditional assets, silver has risen 130%, gold 66%, copper 34%, while overall crypto assets have been lackluster. But there's a critical detail being overlooked:

Although BTC has negative returns for the year, it hit a new all-time high of $126.08K. More importantly, while prices declined, BTC spot ETFs absorbed a net inflow of $25B, with total assets under management reaching $114-120B.

On one side, retail is panic-selling; on the other, institutions are calmly accumulating. This is where the get paradigma is unfolding.

### **Retail Retreats, Institutions Enter — Market Dominance Is Inevitable**

Data reveals a decisive shift:

**Signals of retail exit:**
- Google searches for "Bitcoin" dropped to the lowest in 11 months
- Small transactions ($0-$1) volume down 66%
- Retail holdings share plummeted from 66% at the start of the year
- In 2025 alone, retail net sold approximately 247,000 BTC (about $23B)

**Massive institutional entry:**
- BlackRock’s IBIT surpassed $50B in assets under management within 228 days, setting a record for ETF growth, now holding about 800,000 BTC
- Grayscale, Blackstone, and Fidelity control 89% of ETF assets combined
- Institutional investor holdings account for 24% (Q3 2025 data)
- Large asset managers hold 57% of BTC ETF shares
- Well-known sovereign funds and university endowments are entering, e.g., Harvard Endowment holds $116M in IBIT

Traditional financial giants are also quietly increasing their positions: Morgan Stanley with $724M, JPMorgan with $346M, Wells Fargo with $491M in BTC ETF allocations.

This is not just a change in participants but a rewriting of the game rules.

### **Why Do Institutions Keep Buying at Highs Instead of Selling?**

The answer lies in a heavily overlooked data point: since March 2024, long-term holders (LTH) have sold a total of 1.4M BTC (worth $121.17B), the largest supply release in history.

But a miracle happened — the price did not crash.

Why? Because institutional and corporate funds have fully absorbed this selling pressure. We have witnessed three waves of OGs and early adopters exiting:

1. **End of 2023 - Early 2024**: ETF approval positive, BTC rises from $25K to $73K, long-term holders start reducing positions
2. **End of 2024**: Trump elected, BTC surges to $100K, second wave of reduction begins
3. **Throughout 2025**: BTC consolidates above $100K, a third wave of orderly exits continues

The key is — this is different from the one-time allocation peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021. It’s multiple rounds of sustained institutional accumulation. Long-held BTC (locked for over 2 years) has decreased by 1.6 million coins (about $140B), yet the market’s absorption capacity has actually increased.

The continuous inflow into BTC ETFs precisely indicates that institutions are pricing this new era with real capital.

### **The First Critical Judgment: We Are Not at the Top of a Bull Market, But in an Institutional Accumulation Phase**

The traditional crypto cycle logic is: retail frenzy → price surge → bubble burst → reset to zero.

But the get paradigma’s new logic is: institutional steady allocation → controlled volatility → rising price baseline → structural growth.

This explains why prices are consolidating at high levels while capital continues to flow in — because we are in a new accumulation phase, not a traditional manic phase.

### **Policy Window Opens: This Is the Most Favorable External Environment**

The Trump administration, inaugurated in 2025, has already taken action:

- **January 23**: Signed a cryptocurrency executive order
- **Strategic Bitcoin Reserve**: The government plans to hold about 200,000 BTC
- **GENIUS Act**: Stablecoin regulatory framework has been released
- **SEC New Chair**: Replaced with a pro-crypto advocate, Atkins

Upcoming:
- **Market Structure Act**: Expected to pass with a 77% probability (before 2027)
- **Stablecoin Bond Purchase Rights**: Expected to grow 10x within 3 years

The key is the 2026 mid-term elections. 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats will be up for election. In 2024, 274 "pro-crypto" candidates were elected. But traditional financial lobbying groups are mobilizing, planning to invest over $100M to oppose.

Historical patterns show: policy intensifies one year before elections → first half is a policy honeymoon → second half becomes volatile due to election uncertainty.

This means:

- **First half of 2026** = policy benefits + continued institutional accumulation = market optimism
- **Second half of 2026** = election uncertainty = increased volatility but with an upward trend intact

### **Key Dates and Price Expectations for 2026**

Based on this framework, we can project:

**In the short term (3-6 months)**: BTC oscillates between $87K-$95K, with ongoing low-level institutional accumulation

**First half of 2026**: Policy-driven + institutional double engine, targeting $120K-$150K

**Second half of 2026**: Election-induced volatility, but the fundamentals remain supportive; depends on election results and policy continuity

This also explains why institutional price targets are so optimistic: Van der Merve expects $180K, Standard Chartered $175K-$250K, and grayscale forecasts new highs in the first half of 2026.

### **The Second Critical Judgment: This Is the Beginning of a New Cycle, Not the End of the Old**

Historical context is clear:

- **2013**: Retail-led, peak at $1,100
- **2017**: ICO frenzy, peak at $20,000
- **2021**: DeFi + NFT, peak at $69,000
- **2025**: Institutional entry, current price $91.4K

In each cycle, participants are more professional, funds are more substantial, and infrastructure is more mature. The seemingly worst performance in 2025 actually signifies a deep transformation — a transition from speculation dominance to institutional allocation.

Retail asks, "Will it keep falling?" while institutions think, "How low can I buy?" That’s the cognitive gap.

### **Risks and Opportunities in the Opposite Sides**

Of course, risks remain:

- **Macro**: Fed policy direction, dollar strength
- **Regulatory**: Market Structure Act may be delayed
- **Market**: Long-term holders may continue to reduce positions
- **Political**: Election outcomes are uncertain

But each risk also presents an opportunity. When everyone is pessimistic, it’s often the best time to accumulate.

### **Conclusion: Recognizing the Signs of a New Cycle**

To sum up: the "worst performance" of 2025 actually signals:

- The largest supply transfer in history
- The strongest institutional willingness to allocate
- The clearest political support signals
- The most mature market infrastructure

BTC is down 3.37%, but ETF inflows have reached $25B. This is already the biggest signal.

As long-term operators and investors, our task is not to predict short-term prices but to identify structural trends. In 2026, focus on three key areas: the progress of the Market Structure Act legislation, the potential expansion of Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, and policy continuity after the mid-term elections.

In the long run, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and clearer regulatory frameworks will lay the foundation for the next growth cycle.

Remember: When market structure undergoes a fundamental change, old valuation logic fails, and new pricing power is being rebuilt. Stay rational, stay patient. This winter, institutions are planting the seeds for spring.