Bitcoin Faces Critical Test at $95K Support as Market Liquidation Wave Intensifies

Bitcoin’s recent plunge below $100,000 has exposed a harsh reality for leveraged traders and pushed the market into uncharted territory. The selloff that unfolded saw $655 million in liquidations over 24 hours—the most severe flush since May—with a staggering $190 million wiped out in just 60 minutes. Spot ETFs, which had been the market’s steady hand, suddenly reversed course with $278 million net outflow on Nov. 12 and $961 million for the entire month. The price action was telling: BTC crashed from $103,988 to as low as $95,900, landing squarely on the on-chain support level where long-term holders have accumulated their positions.

The Anatomy of the Selling Wave

What made this wave of selling different from typical corrections was its ferocity and the structure it exposed. Price had been hovering around $96,940—barely 2% above the psychological $95,000 HODL wall—suggesting the market was on a knife’s edge. On-chain data painted a picture of fragility: approximately 65% of all invested capital in Bitcoin sits above this level, creating a compressed, dense zone where both new buyers and seasoned accumulators got trapped during sideways trading. This structure mirrors the late 2021 environment rather than the thin speculative peaks of 2017 or early 2021.

The cascade of forced selling revealed a critical gap in the market structure. Between the $106,000–$118,000 resistance zone and the psychological $100,000 handle, fresh demand simply evaporated. ETF flows, which had been absorbing selling pressure throughout 2025, suddenly flipped negative. This marked a pivotal shift from institutional accumulation to redemption mode.

Who’s Actually Selling?

The devil is in the details. Short-term holders—those who bought near the top around $111,900—have been underwater since October. Their realized profit-loss ratio cratered to 0.21 near $98,000, meaning over 80% of the value they moved to that level was sold at a loss. This is textbook capitulation from recent top-of-market buyers, not a wholesale rotation by long-term holders. On-chain analysis confirms that almost half the coins sold recently came from high-entry traders desperately exiting as prices approached the wall.

This distinction matters enormously. If only short-term traders and leveraged positions are getting flushed, the $95,000 wall could hold as a floor. Long-term holders remain largely unmoved in their cost-basis zones, suggesting they’re willing to wait out the volatility. However, if this cohort begins capitulating too, the roadmap becomes less forgiving.

The Bear Case Below $95K

Should Bitcoin cleanly break below $95,000, the support structure becomes less dense. The first meaningful shelf appears around $85,000—the “tariff tantrum” low where spot trading briefly found footing during policy uncertainty and partially refilled last year’s gaps. Below that sits the True Market Mean near $82,000, a historically powerful magnet that sits directly above the residual gap from the 2024 election rally.

Only past these levels does the older, larger demand zone between $50,000 and $75,000 come into play. That’s when the conversation shifts from temporary relief to sustained bear pressure.

How 2025 Differs From the 2022 Catastrophe

The 2022 bear market offers a cautionary tale but not a direct template. Back then, the loss of the $45,000 HODLers Wall was swift and brutal—short-term holder cost basis cracked at $54,000, the wall offered almost no friction, and the market collapsed straight to the $36,000 True Market Mean across a multi-year air pocket.

In this cycle, the potential fall from $95,000 to the low-$80,000s would sting but wouldn’t recreate that kind of catastrophic multi-year bear. The underlying demand from the 2024 accumulation range sits closer in price, offering more natural resistance points along the way. A 10-15% drawdown from current levels would hurt—but the structural floor is decidedly higher than it was heading into 2022’s devastation.

What Comes Next?

The short-term backdrop remains fragile. Perpetual funding rates have declined since October’s leverage flush. Options markets now price an 11% implied volatility premium favoring put protection over calls, a clear hedge for downside. ETF inflows have dried up entirely, replaced by steady redemptions.

The real question hinges on the $95,000–$115,000 zone where most coins are currently distributed. If long-term holders maintain discipline and absorb the short-term trader panic, the wall can serve as a floor and buy time to rebuild demand. If they capitulate too, the path through $85,000 toward $82,000 is already mapped on-chain. At current prices near $91.51K, Bitcoin is testing critical resolve—and the market’s answer will determine whether we see a healthy correction or something far more consequential.