XRP under pressure: What does the extension pattern tell us about the upcoming support levels?

Key Points:

• The weekly XRP chart exhibits a megaphone pattern pointing to retracement targets up to $0.88
• Realized losses have accumulated to seven-month highs, reflecting investor capitulation
• More than 41.5% of holders are operating at a loss at current prices

Current Market Data

XRP is trading at $2.06 with a 1.81% decline in the last 24 hours, extending its weakness from all-time highs of $3.65. The 50% drop since mid-July has generated accumulated selling pressure that now reaches levels not seen since April.

XRP’s Extensible Pattern and Its Technical Implications

The formation on the weekly timeframe shows characteristics of a megaphone or broadening wedge pattern, where the price makes higher highs while lows decrease. This classic setup, according to technical analysis, often precedes significant corrections.

The critical level is at $1.80, where a confirmed break would activate the $0.88 target, representing a 54% corrective move from current levels. Before reaching this level, two simple moving averages act as potential support points: the 100-week SMA at $1.60 and the 200-week SMA at $1.05.

Momentum Indicators Reveal Growing Weakness

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 39 on Friday, a dramatic drop from 91 recorded in December 2024. This momentum collapse suggests a transition from extreme oversold conditions to sustained bearish momentum.

The XRP Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has shifted from euphoric highs to denial territory, with early signs of anxiety among holders. According to Glassnode data, more than 41.5% of XRP holders are currently in the red at current prices.

Investor Capitulation Accelerating Selling Pressure

Realized losses in XRP have reached seven-month highs. The 30-day exponential moving average of daily realized losses surged to approximately (million daily, indicating accelerated capitulation.

This forced loss selling level recalls similar setups observed in 2018 and 2021, periods that preceded sharp corrections. The persistent selling pressure, especially with whales continuing to take profits, amplifies the risks of deeper retracements for XRP in the coming weeks.

On-chain demand remains persistently weak, combined with retail capitulation, suggesting that dynamic support levels may be tested before any price stabilization emerges.