Can residual leverage in Bitcoin push the price towards $70,000?

The volatility that recently shook Bitcoin revealed an uncomfortable truth: there is still unliquidated leverage in the market that could trigger further declines. According to recent technical analysis, although the market has already eliminated much of the leveraged positions, the “last laggards” remain a significant risk factor.

Analyst James Check labeled the recent movement as a “2-sigma liquidation event,” a term describing statistically significant price movements that trigger massive liquidations. While most leverage has already been cleared, the market has mechanisms to detect and eliminate residual pockets of leveraged positions, he warned.

Price scenarios and critical support levels

Bitcoin suffered a drop of over $24,000 in just 10 days, reaching seven-month lows near $82,000 on November 21. Current price data shows BTC at $91.64K with a 0.95% increase in 24 hours, indicating a partial recovery from the lows.

Analysts warn that residual leverage could push prices back toward the critical zone of $70,000-$80,000 if another wave of panic occurs. “We need to carefully observe whether the market manages to stabilize or if new external triggers could reactivate liquidations,” experts from SignalPlus stated.

Augustine Fan, head of analysis at SignalPlus, identifies a tentative local bottom at current levels, with expected oscillations between $82,000 and $92,000. However, a sustained break below $78,000 would pose a considerable risk.

Whales still control the game

On-chain data revealed by CryptoQuant shows a concerning pattern: Bitcoin whales (holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) continue to distribute their holdings. This behavior is a critical indicator because as long as whales keep selling, confirmation of a trend change remains pending.

“The market is currently shaped by significant institutional redistribution combined with structural weakness,” explained analyst Carmelo Alemán. Although on-chain data suggests a local bottom may have been established, the selling behavior of whales remains an obstacle to a sustained recovery.

What is the most likely scenario?

Technical metrics indicate that markets are oversold both from a sentiment and technical perspective (extreme Bollinger bands), suggesting that local lows may have been confirmed. However, the circulating leverage still keeps the possibility of new turbulence alive.

Downward pressure has not completely disappeared. While most of the excessive leverage has already been liquidated, the last pockets of leveraged positions could reactivate if the market experiences another shake similar to last month. Bitcoin needs to close confirmations of sustained recovery to clear the threat of residual leverage that could still exact its price.