BTC's Cost Structure Transformation: What the Latest On-Chain Data Reveals After the October Downturn

Following the dramatic market correction on October 11, Bitcoin’s chip composition has shifted dramatically. According to recent blockchain analysis, the restructuring of BTC cost basis over the past two months demonstrates a market in transition between accumulation and distribution phases.

Major Shifts in Bitcoin Holder Positioning

The most striking finding from current data is the concentration of long-term holders’ positions. The $80,000-$90,000 range has become the dominant support level, now containing 2.536 million BTC—a gain of 1.874 million coins since the October decline. This represents the most critical price floor in the current market structure.

Secondary accumulation zones tell an equally important story. Holdings in the $90,000-$100,000 band increased by 324,000 coins, while the $100,000-$110,000 range saw an influx of 87,000 coins. These figures suggest buyers have been opportunistically deploying capital at higher levels, though not with the same conviction as at lower prices.

The Supply-Demand Equilibrium

Examining the broader picture with current BTC trading near $91.82K, the market presents an almost perfect mirror image of profitable versus unprofitable positions. Above current levels sit 6.168 million BTC underwater, while 7.462 million coins are in profit below. This near-balanced state (after adjusting for Satoshi Nakamoto’s dormant holdings and permanently lost supply) suggests the market is searching for directional clarity.

The Great Long-Term Holder Liquidation

From October 11 through December 20, profitable participants have executed a wholesale exit. The number of BTC holders showing gains has declined by 1.33 million coins—evidence of a “profit-taking cascade” among advantage position holders. Simultaneously, those holding at prices above $110,000 reduced their positions by 902,000 coins, though notably, new BTC did not flee the $100,000-$110,000 range entirely; instead, 87,000 coins were added.

The most aggressive distribution occurred in the $60,000-$70,000 acquisition band, where significant selling pressure emerged. These holdings were primarily accumulated before the 2024 U.S. election and have since experienced substantial pullback. With profits compressed, holders in this cohort have shown urgency in booking exits.

A Critical Gap Presenting Opportunity

One noteworthy pattern emerges in the $70,000-$80,000 range, where only 190,000 BTC remain concentrated—representing a relative scarcity zone compared to adjacent price levels. This gap in supply could function as a magnetic price level, potentially attracting fresh capital inflows if Bitcoin retreats to this band, thereby providing a stabilizing effect.

The current Bitcoin cost structure has undergone transformative changes, painting a portrait of a market where long-term conviction is wavering amid macro uncertainty and cycles of distribution among those holding multi-year positions.