Bitcoin's four-year cycle: political cycles and technical correction — how to recognize the turning point

Has Bitcoin lost its four-year cyclicality? Each day, the debate among institutional investors heats up even more. However, before drawing conclusions, it’s worth looking into the essence of the cycle itself: has the market truly shifted from an expansion phase to a correction? History shows that cycles do not disappear—they evolve. The key is not in short-term price jumps but in whether Bitcoin has deviated from its classic cyclical trajectory.

Political and Liquidity Cycles: Invisible Market Drivers

Understanding Bitcoin’s deep pattern is difficult without considering the U.S. political calendar. Midterm election years—2014, 2018, 2022—consistently coincided with the biggest market stresses for the cryptocurrency. This is no coincidence. Midterm elections traditionally bring political instability, liquidity shortages, and reduced risk appetite. Following this logic, the approaching midterm elections of 2026 are already beginning to influence the macroeconomic environment: rising unemployment, tightening policy maneuvering.

Bitcoin feels this pressure earlier than traditional assets because it is especially sensitive to fluctuations in global liquidity. Central bank easing decisions do not immediately support risk assets—the positive effect will come later, once the economy stabilizes.

Understanding the Cycle: Demand Remains Strong, but Its Pace Slows

The driving force behind Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is not the halving itself but demand dynamics. When demand growth slows down, Bitcoin traditionally enters a bear market phase.

The current situation shows exactly this. Continuous selling by miners and early holders effectively neutralizes the influx of capital from Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries. The result is decreased volatility and an obvious decline in market risk appetite. At the current price of $91.82K (as of January 12, 2026), BTC demonstrates indifference, typical for transitional periods.

Technical Signals: When Support Fails

On a technical level, recent months have provided clear signals of cyclical decline. Bitcoin’s monthly close dropped below the 12-month moving average—for the first time since November 2025. Historically, such a signal has preceded the end of bullish cycles.

Compare this to December 2022, when Bitcoin rose above this average, marking the start of the current growth. Now, losing this support is a clear indicator of structural reevaluation. This is not panic—it’s the market rearming for a new period.

From Mining Stress to Structural Reevaluation

Miners and early holders remain the main sellers, creating constant downward pressure on the price. Meanwhile, structural flows from institutional investors have been less positive than expected. This creates dynamic tension—not panic, but reconfiguration.

In such conditions, volatility becomes the new normal. However, extended volatility can create a favorable environment for savvy accumulation of long-term positions ahead of the next cycle.

The simple conclusion: Bitcoin is not entering a crash phase but a phase of structural correction driven by political cycles, demand dynamics, and technical breakpoints. This is a natural part of market evolution, where institutional participation has changed the rhythm but not canceled it.