Long-term investing indeed has people who achieve great success over a 20-year career, but the results can unexpectedly collapse and give back to the market during a rare event. Most retail investors focus on short-term results, worried about not making money or losing money. Many retail investors are also paying attention to opportunities with high probability of profit and low probability of loss. From a short-term perspective, this approach seems reliable. However, when considering the long-term time variable, it becomes less reliable. Retail investors mainly overlook a logical point: rare events are likely to happen over the long term. Investing is not difficult; what makes long-term investing very difficult is that investors' vigilance may relax. Warren Buffett is reluctant to take on the risk of a once-in-a-century event, while retail investors believe that high probability of making money equals a reliable investment. The gap in awareness of rare event prevention is significant. This is also why, when investors review their accumulated wealth, they should be happy and quickly reflect on how to further reduce risks. Long-term investors aiming for a safe exit and maintaining their investment careers should reduce returns to avoid small-probability risks, rather than taking on small-probability risks for higher returns. Because over the long term, small-probability risks are more likely to materialize, and the inertia of wealth accumulation can cause cognitive frustration; therefore, one should always be vigilant about how to continue reducing risks while achieving reasonable relative returns. When satisfied with returns, it is the absolute value of compound interest that makes the difference. $M $DES EN $IQ G$GT
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Long-term investing indeed has people who achieve great success over a 20-year career, but the results can unexpectedly collapse and give back to the market during a rare event. Most retail investors focus on short-term results, worried about not making money or losing money. Many retail investors are also paying attention to opportunities with high probability of profit and low probability of loss. From a short-term perspective, this approach seems reliable. However, when considering the long-term time variable, it becomes less reliable. Retail investors mainly overlook a logical point: rare events are likely to happen over the long term. Investing is not difficult; what makes long-term investing very difficult is that investors' vigilance may relax. Warren Buffett is reluctant to take on the risk of a once-in-a-century event, while retail investors believe that high probability of making money equals a reliable investment. The gap in awareness of rare event prevention is significant. This is also why, when investors review their accumulated wealth, they should be happy and quickly reflect on how to further reduce risks. Long-term investors aiming for a safe exit and maintaining their investment careers should reduce returns to avoid small-probability risks, rather than taking on small-probability risks for higher returns. Because over the long term, small-probability risks are more likely to materialize, and the inertia of wealth accumulation can cause cognitive frustration; therefore, one should always be vigilant about how to continue reducing risks while achieving reasonable relative returns. When satisfied with returns, it is the absolute value of compound interest that makes the difference. $M $DES EN $IQ G$GT