Why is a16z investing 15 billion in AI and crypto? Three major trends reveal the true dilemma of the agency economy

According to the latest news, a16z crypto released an analytical article on January 12th titled “Artificial Intelligence in 2026: Three Major Trends,” predicting that the AI agent economy will face three significant shifts. Interestingly, this forecast precisely explains why a16z just raised $15 billion three days ago, with AI and crypto listed as core investment areas. Behind these three trends lies a deeper logic: an identity and trust crisis in the era of agent economy, and blockchain technology is the key to solving this crisis.

The Leap in AI Agent Capabilities and New Missions

Based on a16z’s prediction, by 2026, AI will evolve from simple question-and-answer tools into assistants capable of handling substantive research tasks. This is not just a performance upgrade but a role transformation. AI will understand complex instructions like guiding doctoral students, propose novel academic hypotheses, and even independently solve high-difficulty mathematical problems (such as Putnam competition questions).

This enhancement in capability means AI agents will no longer be just auxiliary tools but will begin to undertake more creative and decision-making work. Accordingly, a16z predicts a shift in research style toward a “scholar” model—leveraging AI’s “hallucination” features to stimulate creativity, and using multi-layered “agent-wrapped agents” workflows to produce high-quality results.

In other words, AI must be smarter and capable of functioning within complex collaborative systems. Why is this important? Because as AI starts participating in more critical tasks, humans need to know whether they can trust these AI agents, whether they are capable, and whether they are truly doing what they should.

Identity Crisis: From KYC to KYA

This is the core of the second trend—shifting from “Know Your Customer” (KYC) to “Know Your Agent” (KYA).

a16z points out that the biggest bottleneck in the agent economy era is no longer intelligence but identity and trust. This observation is crucial: the number of non-human agents has far exceeded that of humans, yet they remain “bankless ghosts.” No one knows who these AI agents are, whom they represent, what permissions they have, or what responsibilities they should bear.

To address this, a16z believes it is necessary to rapidly establish KYA infrastructure. What is the specific solution? Binding AI agents to their subjects, permissions, and responsibilities through cryptographic signatures. This approach allows AI agents to participate securely in high-risk activities like finance and trading.

The logic here is clear: only when we can verify an AI agent’s identity, track its actions, and authenticate its permissions can we confidently allow it to participate in financial transactions. Cryptographic signatures are the technical foundation to achieve all this.

The Hidden Tax Issue and a New Model for Value Flow

The third trend involves a broader issue: the “hidden tax” on open networks.

Currently, AI agents extract information from open websites on a large scale but bypass traditional revenue sources like advertising and subscriptions. This creates a persistent “hidden tax” on content creators and the entire internet ecosystem—value is being extracted without compensation. a16z believes existing AI licensing agreements are just temporary patches and are financially unsustainable.

What is the future solution? Building new techno-economic models that utilize blockchain to enable real-time, usage-based nano-payments and complex attribution. In other words, whenever an AI agent uses a piece of content, the system can automatically calculate the value of that use and distribute tiny payments to all entities contributing the information.

It sounds complex, but the core logic is simple: using blockchain’s transparency and automation capabilities to make value flow more precise, fair, and efficient.

Why is a16z Investing $15 Billion

Looking back at a16z’s $15 billion fundraising, it becomes clear why AI and crypto are listed as core investment directions. These three trends tell us:

• AI agents will participate in more key decisions and transactions
• A new identity and trust system (KYA) is needed
• This system must be built on cryptographic technology
• A new value distribution mechanism is also required

In other words, a16z sees not just technological progress in AI but the emergence of a new era that requires deep integration of AI and blockchain. Without cryptographic identity verification and value flow mechanisms, the AI agent economy cannot be scaled securely. Conversely, without AI participation, many blockchain applications will also struggle to reach true mass adoption.

The Acceleration in 2026

Based on these trends, 2026 is likely to become a pivotal year for the AI agent economy. We can expect to see:

• More AI agents engaging in finance and trading activities
• KYA infrastructure being deployed in key sectors
• Blockchain-based nano-payment systems gradually being implemented
• Increased integration of AI and crypto technologies

This will not only drive development in these fields but also create new business opportunities and investment directions.

Summary

a16z’s three major trend predictions essentially depict a question: when AI agents become sufficiently powerful and widespread, how do we ensure they are trustworthy, controllable, and fair? The answer points to the same direction—new identity systems (KYA), new value distribution mechanisms, all supported by blockchain technology.

This explains why top-tier VCs are heavily investing in both AI and crypto. They are not two separate tracks but part of a comprehensive technological paradigm shift. For those paying attention to this field, the keywords for 2026 should be “AI agent economy” and “identity trust infrastructure,” and progress in these areas warrants ongoing attention.