Middle East tensions are heating up—there's roughly a 44% probability of escalation this month. Here's what could play out if it happens:

Energy markets first: oil prices would spike hard, sending shockwaves across the entire market ecosystem. When crude rallies, everything else tends to catch a bid or bid farewell. Stocks would likely take the hit, dragging equities into red territory. Crypto? Same story—risk-off sentiment tends to flush crypto along with equity portfolios.

But precious metals would flip the script. Gold and silver typically moon during geopolitical uncertainty, acting as the classic safe haven play.

So we're looking at a classic risk-off scenario: commodities crash, crypto dumps, but gold runs. The kicker? This isn't the market stability narrative we were sold on.