The investment market always punishes those who follow the crowd. To achieve excess returns, you need to master at least one of two weapons: obtaining information earlier or having a deeper analytical perspective than market consensus.



But here’s a key point—true "superior analysis" is not just piling up data, but thinking from a different dimension. Most people look at candlestick charts to find support levels, while a few consider market psychology; most follow hot coins, while a few study fundamental logic. This is the power of second-order thinking.

In the zero-sum game of the crypto market, if your views align with 90% of retail investors, your returns are destined to be mediocre. The premise of beating the market is simple: having independent, non-consensus judgments. Such judgments come from correct thinking methods and are even more rooted in genuine independence.

As the classic saying goes— the first key to successful investing is thinking correctly, and the second is independent thinking. Both are indispensable.
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UnruggableChadvip
· 20h ago
Sounds good, but most people simply can't do it, including the author of this article.
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OnchainArchaeologistvip
· 20h ago
Sounds good, but the key is that most people simply don't have an information advantage... Independent thinking sounds easy, but when you actually reverse operate and suffer losses, you realize what pain really is. I've heard the second-order thinking theory a hundred times, but the question is, how do you judge that your judgment isn't an illusion? Another motivational article titled "Breaking Consensus to Make Money"... My records of reverse operations don't look very good. In zero-sum games, there are always smarter people than you; this article is more friendly to the wealthy. The hardest part isn't independent thinking, but bearing the consequences of thinking independently being wrong. To put it simply, it's an information war. How can retail investors beat institutions with channels?
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ColdWalletGuardianvip
· 20h ago
It sounds good, but most people haven't even understood the first step --- 90% of retail investors lose money not because they lack independent thinking, but because they lack execution --- Information gap is the biggest weapon; no matter how deep the analysis, you still need to have money to wait for that day --- Wait, doesn't that mean you need to operate contrarily? Wouldn't that just fall into another trap --- True non-consensus judgment is very lonely; having a mental breakdown is more painful than losing money --- Second-order thinking sounds advanced, but in reality, winning the bet is called foresight, losing the bet is called reckless tinkering --- The problem is how to judge whether your judgment is right or wrong; this is the core --- The crypto market is like this: today's independent thinking is tomorrow's bag-holder --- Instead of overthinking, it's better to first manage your positions well --- Those who control information are always institutions; retail investors, no matter how independent their thinking, are just wasting time
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ContractCollectorvip
· 20h ago
Sounds nice, but most people simply can't do it, including myself haha
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fomo_fightervip
· 20h ago
It sounds good, but how many actually do it? Most people just talk about independent thinking but follow the trend and buy coins.
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SchrödingersNodevip
· 20h ago
That's a nice way to put it, but the problem is that most people can't tell whether they are "thinking independently" or "self-deceiving." --- 90% of retail investors lose money not because they haven't heard of this theory, but because they can't execute it. The information gap has long been eliminated. --- Second-order thinking sounds impressive, but it's actually just reverse operation, and reverse operation is also easy to fall into traps. --- Those who can truly make money keep silent, while those who speak are actually teaching lessons. --- Independent judgment is easy to talk about, but a single word from a big V can pull you back into the team. --- Instead of obsessing over thinking methods, it's better to honestly admit that most people are just gambling. --- Early access to information and independent analysis—pick one? Isn't it that both are needed? If you don't have either, you can't play.
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