2026-01-11 15:23:35

In December 2025, the US non-farm payrolls data was released, showing an increase of only 50,000 jobs, well below the market expectation of 70,000. This marks the third "miss" in the employment market this year. The data from the previous two months was revised downward by 76,000, bringing the total annual job increase to just 584,000 — the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Interestingly, the unemployment rate actually fell from 4.5% to 4.4%. While this sounds like good news, the underlying logic is quite sobering: mainly due to a decline in the labor force participation rate, meaning some people have simply exited the job search altogether. In other words, the true employment momentum remains quite weak.

Looking at specific industries, healthcare and the hospitality sector are holding up, but retail lost 25,000 jobs. This is a clear signal — consumer demand is cooling. The private sector added an average of 61,000 jobs per month, the weakest since 2003, indicating that companies' willingness to hire is truly declining.

Wages grew by 3.8% year-over-year, outpacing current inflation levels. On the surface, this seems positive, but it masks the awkward situation in the overall job market. The economy now resembles a kind of "jobless prosperity" — companies are slowing hiring while also engaging in structural layoffs. The labor market is rebalancing, which will further deepen the "K-shaped" divergence.

The Federal Reserve has temporarily taken a breather because, despite poor employment data, the unemployment rate has decreased — a mixed signal. The market now expects that the Fed is likely to hold steady in January, but there may still be room for a 50 basis point rate cut this year. For traders, this contradictory data is precisely the source of market volatility and warrants ongoing attention.

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WalletAnxietyPatient

· 7h ago

Retail is cooling down, consumption is really gone It's another fake unemployment rate, people are just lying flat The K-shaped divergence is becoming more and more obvious, ordinary people are finding it harder and harder Salary increased by 3.8%? That's just closing your eyes and stealing a bell The Federal Reserve's mixed signals this time, traders are going crazy again With such poor employment data, why not cut interest rates? What are they thinking? Companies are slowing down hiring, in plain words, there's no work 50,000 new jobs? That's hilarious, it's actually contracting Such a mess at the end of the year, how will 2026 go If you ask me, everyone should hold tight to their wallets

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GasFeeBeggar

· 7h ago

It's another false prosperity. People have already left the labor market, yet they are still claiming that the unemployment rate is decreasing? Retail collapse by 25,000; the consumption side really can't hold up anymore. The K-shaped divergence will continue to deepen; the retail investors need to wake up. The Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy, but with employment so bad, they probably have to keep cutting until the end of the year. This kind of mixed signal is the most profitable; volatility is our opportunity. The unemployment rate is purely a misleading figure; no one looking for a job can explain anything? I bet the Federal Reserve will still cut in January, but if corporate hiring doesn't improve, the problems will become bigger later. A 3.8% wage increase—so what? With more people unemployed, isn't this money just shrinking? Unemployment prosperity? That's a good term; in fact, the economy is dying. Retail collapse is a signal; the consumption side really can't withstand the pressure of high interest rates.

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AirdropBuffet

· 7h ago

Bro, the data on 50,000 jobs really can't hold up anymore. Unemployment rate has dropped, but people are just not looking for jobs anymore. I see through this trick. Retail lost 25,000 jobs; consumer spending cooling off is definitely a factor. K-shaped divergence is happening, and the wealth gap is getting more and more outrageous. The Federal Reserve's mixed signals mean traders need to get excited. A 3.8% salary increase sounds good, but purchasing power is still shrinking. Companies are no longer hiring and are starting to do structural layoffs. Whoever bets on the right direction will make money.

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MemeKingNFT

· 7h ago

Oh no, these data really show a "knife mouth and tofu heart" situation. Unemployment rate drops but jobs are gone. Basically, people are "lying flat." Isn't this just like whales on the chain withdrawing liquidity? Surface calm but internally exhausted long ago. I predicted the retail job losses early on. Cooling consumer demand means on-chain Gas fees will also decrease, which is a sign of a major cycle ahead. Mixed signals? This is the best opportunity to build positions. K-shaped divergence is intensifying, and funds will only flow into blue-chip projects. Retail investors' chives mentality is about to start again. The Federal Reserve holding steady is paving the way for a liquidity explosion. A 50 basis point rate cut space is like giving BTC a green light. I am optimistic about its potential. Salary up 3.8% but consumption cooled? This phenomenology tells us that only holding digital assets can fight inflation. Fiat will depreciate sooner or later. No employment prosperity? Laughs. This is the death spiral of the traditional economy. Web3 has already provided the answer.

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DeFi_Dad_Jokes

· 7h ago

Unemployment rate drops but actually people are giving up on job hunting, I know this trick too well, data is misleading Retail lost 25,000 jobs, consumer side really can't hold up anymore K-shaped divergence is becoming more and more obvious, the wealth gap is widening rapidly The Federal Reserve's mixed signals are causing the market to rollercoaster every day, traders are probably staying up late again Only added 584,000 jobs? That's one-tenth of the recovery during last year's pandemic, what is this if not a recession? A 3.8% salary increase sounds good, but compared to the wave of layoffs, it's just a joke Companies slowing hiring while cutting staff, this special "jobless prosperity" is just toxic positivity Real employment momentum is so weak, that's the real issue Healthcare and dining are holding the scene, are all other industries trembling? 50 basis points rate cut room, let's see if next year will actually happen or be a false promise

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