Tonight's crypto scene has turned into a major show. Non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve Chair appointment collided, pushing market suspense to the max. At this moment, Bitcoin has just retreated from its high to around $89,000, and Ethereum has pulled back to the $3,000 level. The entire market is oscillating repeatedly, revealing a sense of unease. Honestly, tonight's market movement directly relates to the tone of the coming months—whether it opens the door to a bull market early or undergoes a correction first—all depends on how these data and information unfold.

Rather than being led by market noise, it's better to clarify the core logic first. One premise must be clear: the possibility of a rate cut in January is virtually zero. The latest data from CME FedWatch Tool shows that the current probability of a rate cut is only 11.6%, which is as unlikely as winning the lottery. Therefore, don't expect the central bank to inject liquidity at the beginning of the month to rescue the market.

What truly deserves attention is the pace of rate cuts throughout 2026. This factor is the key variable determining whether the crypto market can kick off a new bull run. Currently, market opinions are divided into two main camps, with heated debates.

According to Polymarket's market expectation data, the most likely scenario is two rate cuts in 2026, totaling 50 basis points, with a 28% probability. The second most likely is three rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points, with a 22% probability. As for four or more rate cuts, the probability is less than 17%, making it a low-probability event.

However, Fed Governor Milan has put forward a bold view. This official directly stated that there should be a 150 basis point rate cut in 2026, confidently claiming that rate cuts could create 1 million jobs out of thin air—this stance is clearly more aggressive than market expectations. The divide between the dovish and hawkish camps is here: one supports significant easing, the other is relatively cautious.

For traders, this divergence presents an opportunity. If the Fed leans toward easing later, expectations for rate cuts will gradually heat up, and the logic of liquidity flowing back into the crypto market will hold. But if the federal funds rate remains high or is only slightly lowered, the attractiveness of crypto assets will be somewhat diminished.

This is why tonight's market movement is so critical. Non-farm payroll data will directly influence market expectations for a soft landing, which in turn affects rate cut pricing. The Fed Chair's statements and policy stance are even more direct signals. The current oscillation of Bitcoin and Ethereum is precisely the market digesting these variables.

The current strategy should be to closely monitor data releases and official statements, while also taking a longer-term view—extending from monthly non-farm data to the annual pace of rate cuts. The overall direction of the crypto market is rarely determined by a single event but by the macro liquidity environment. Whether 2026 truly ushers in a rate cut cycle and how large the cuts will be are the key factors shaping the subsequent market trend.