Watching BTC repeatedly fluctuate around $90,000, many people wake up in the early hours every day to monitor the market, eyes wide open looking for signs of top divergence, palms sweaty, waiting for that "healthy correction" to buy the dip. Some in the group are even adamant that they will hold cash until it drops to $70,000, as if they can predict the market script.

Having observed the market for over ten years, I feel that this kind of sideways trading is essentially a test of speculative mentality—there aren't many who can pass. Many still apply the old saying "long consolidation at high levels must fall," but they overlook the core indicator that truly determines the trend: the selling pressure has already dried up as much as it can.

I checked the on-chain data from the past two weeks. The proportion of BTC supply in profit has rebounded from -12% to -6% over 30 days. What does this mean? The profit-taking supply that wanted to cash out earlier has basically been exhausted, and selling pressure is clearly waning. When negative news hit two weeks ago, BTC suddenly dropped to $82,000, but within less than half an hour, it was pulled back near $90,000. This is not a coincidence but a true reflection of the depth of off-market funds—no matter how many want to dump, there are large funds silently absorbing the sell-offs.

The scene in January 2020 when BTC was around $10,000 is somewhat similar to now. Back then, many shouted about bubbles and tops, but they missed the entire doubling rally. Many people have never bought a single BTC worth ten thousand since then.

To judge whether the sideways movement is just the main players accumulating or a real decline is coming, don’t just look at candlestick patterns. You need to consider turnover rate and large holder behavior. Currently, BTC’s average daily turnover rate is stable at around 3%, which indicates low trading activity—holders have little desire to trade, and the market has entered a waiting mode.