Why is CZ's super cycle forecast cautious, while the market is rushing ahead?

CZ posted on the X platform stating, “The super cycle is coming, but I might also be wrong.” This seemingly simple statement reveals the Binance founder’s true attitude toward the current market. Amid widespread market consensus on the formation of a super cycle in 2026, CZ’s caution is particularly thought-provoking.

Super Cycle Consensus Is Established, but Risks Are Simultaneously Amplified

According to the latest news, market expectations for 2026 have become quite unified. Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal recently suggested that the four-year cycle narrative for Bitcoin might be broken, replaced by a new logic driven by global liquidity. He believes that under U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, strong liquidity will emerge in 2026, becoming a new core driver of Bitcoin prices.

Wall Street analyst Tom Lee is even more aggressive, predicting Bitcoin could reach $300,000 and Ethereum $20,000. Behind these forecasts is an optimistic outlook on the flood of liquidity and the tokenization wave.

Market performance also confirms this enthusiasm. Bitcoin has strongly broken through and stabilized above $90,000 and the 50-day moving average, with institutional trends continuing to advance. Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng predicts that 2026 will be a key turning point for crypto assets transitioning from experimental stages into the mainstream financial system.

Where Does CZ’s Caution Come From?

But why does CZ add the qualifier “I might also be wrong”?

This reflects the rationality of an experienced industry veteran. While the super cycle expectation has high market consensus, the fundamentals are not as solid as they seem. Global liquidity policies are subject to change, geopolitical risks remain, and regulatory attitudes are still evolving. Having just been pardoned last year, CZ’s sensitivity to policy risks is naturally higher.

More importantly, CZ might be reminding the market: when everyone is discussing the same story, the risk often lies within that story. This is a common psychological trap at the top of a major cycle.

Caution Does Not Equal Bearishness

It’s important to clarify that CZ does not deny the possibility of a super cycle; he is simply emphasizing the uncertainty of the judgment. This attitude is precisely what should be present in investment decisions—trust the overall direction but remain alert to execution details.

According to the latest news, the driving force behind the current rebound is indeed shifting. The narrative is moving from “halving hype” to “global liquidity injection.” This new logical framework is fresh and worth paying attention to. However, whether this new framework can sustain the market depends on whether liquidity policies can be implemented as expected.

Summary

CZ’s statement is actually an important reminder: the super cycle may be approaching, but market expectations might have already overreacted. The key in 2026 is not simply chasing the rally but understanding the change in driving logic while maintaining respect for risks. When even industry giants like CZ emphasize the possibility of being wrong, ordinary investors should ask themselves: am I following the consensus blindly, or do I truly understand the story?